Grain Farmers See Hope, Export Sales At Top End of Expectations

Export sales came in above the top end of expectations
Grain market has very little weather premium built into prices
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)
 

Fundamentals: Export sales came in at 1,464,600 metric tons, above the top end of expectations and one of the best numbers in some time. The bull camp wants/needs to see this become a trend, not just a flash in the pan. The market has very little weather premium built into the market as forecasts look non-threatening.

Technicals: Technicals are little changed from yesterday’s report as the market continues to trade between support and resistance levels. Previous resistance now becomes first support, we see that as 362 ½-363 ¾. The bulls must defend this pocket on a closing basis, a failure to do so could take us back to contract lows, 350-352 ¼. Resistance remains intact from 377-381, consecutive closes above here could spark a round of short-covering, potentially to the gap from last months USDA report.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 377-381**, 392 ¾***, 405-407**

Support: 362 ½-363 ¾***,350-352 ¼***, 338 ¾-343**

 

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: Export sales came in at 1,728,100 metric tons, well above the top end of expectations. As with corn, the bull camp wants/needs to see this become a trend, not just a flash in the pan. The market has very little weather premium built into the market as forecasts look non-threatening. Nothing substantive to report on trade.

Technicals: The technical landscape is little changed as the market continues to linger in our support pocket, for the 4th consecutive day. We have defined that as 885 ¾-890. Bulls need to achieve consecutive closes above 900 to spark a bigger move higher. 913 ½-915 ¼ is the next significant pocket we are watching; this represents the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the contract highs to contract lows.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 900** 914 ¾-915 ½****, 924**, 936 ½**

Pivot: 891 ¾

Support: 885 ¾-890***, 869-871**, 850-852 ½****

Wheat Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Export sales came in at 286,000 metric tons, below the low end of expectations. The market has been in a choppy, sideways trade this week as market participants search for new news, which has been hard to come by. Money flow and technicals continue to be our focus and things have been shaping up nicely.

Technicals: This week’s sideways trade is constructive after last week's rally. So long as the bulls can continue to defend support at 480, we think there’s an opportunity to see prices work towards their psychologically significant 5.00 handle, also representing the 100-day moving average and the breakdown point from last months USDA report.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 493-500****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 480**, 469 ½-470**, 442-446**, 427 ¼****

 

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