Grain Traders Turn Attention To Money Flow, Weather, and Crop Reports

Inability to break the market on a bearish report as a big positive
November soybeans had a strong performance last week
Wheat futures worked higher last week on spillover from broad Ag sector
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)
 

Fundamentals: The market managed to rally in the back half of the week, following a “blah” USDA report. We view the inability to break the market on a bearish report as a big positive. Attention will now turn to money flow, weather, and crop progress reports. Analysts are expecting to see good/excellent ratings at 54%. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a net short position of 136,399 contracts through September 10th, 17,028 more than the previous week.

Technicals: The market was able to grind higher in the back half of last week’s trade, taking prices closer to our first resistance pocket, 377-381. The bulls need to see consecutive closes above here to officially end the trend of lower highs and lower lows. A failure to achieve this could take prices back towards the bottom end of the recent range. 363 ¾ is our pivot point that the bulls need to defend this week.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 377-381**, 392 ¾***, 405-407**

Support: 363 ¾***,350-352 ¼***, 338 ¾-343**

 

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: November soybeans had a strong performance last week, finishing nearly 50 cents off last Monday’s low. The market is putting more weight into trade talks with John Bolton out of the picture, we expect to see more headlines at some point this week. Analysts are expecting today’s crop progress report to show good/excellent ratings at 54%. NOPA crush will be released this morning, estimates come in near 162 million bushels. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought back 18,610 contracts, trimming their net short to 73,127.

Technicals: Early last week we wrote that a move above 880-885 would open the door for a run back at $9.00, that’s exactly what we saw, albeit in a faster fashion than expected. The bulls want to defend 885 ¾-890 to start the week, this pocket represents the 50 and 100-day moving average, along with a key retracement and other previously important price points. On the resistance side of things, there’s not a lot until closer to 914 ¾-915 ½.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 914 ¾-915 ½****, 924**, 936 ½**

Support: 885 ¾-890***, 850-852 ½****, 839 ¾-843 ¾**, 815 ½****
 

Wheat Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Wheat futures managed to work higher last week on spillover strength and money flow for the broad Ag sector. If corn and beans can keep their footing this week, we would expect to see that be supportive to wheat futures. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought back 6,648 contracts, trimming their net short position to 14,389.

Techncials: The market ran at the 50-day moving average on Friday but failed to find willing buyers above it, ahead of the weekend. There’s a minor resistance pocket from 490-491, above that is 498 ¾-500 ¾. On the support side of things, the bulls need to defend 469 ½-470.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 493-500****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 469 ½-470**, 442-446**, 427 ¼****

 

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