CRYPTO MOVERS AND PRICES
CRYPTO STORY OF THE DAY
Monthly historical volatility readings in Bitcoin have fallen to their lowest levels since the beginning of the summer - that said, we remain well above readings that have been leading indicators of large market moves over the last 2-years (chart).
Bitcoin 30-Day Volatility at the lowest levels of the summer but still well above those from last October.
Crypto Takeaway: Throughout August, crypto exchange volumes declined to some of the lowest levels seen in 2019. With that quiet, volatility also dropped off of 2019 highs made in late July. As in other asset classes, in crypto, periods of hyper-low volatility often lead to abrupt spikes in vol on aggressive market moves. The most recent precedent where that was seen in bitcoin was in March / April 2019, which preceded the most significant rally in the last 12-months and November 2018, which coincided with the most significant decline in a year. In both cases, monthly historical vol levels were in the range of 25 to 30 where we are currently above 55. Ultimately, while volatility is dwindling and caution is warranted, recent precedent suggests we could consolidate further before bitcoin resolves itself to the upside/downside.