Expect Thin Trade in Grain Markets Going Into Holiday Weekend

Possible weather premium if cooler temps persist
Holiday weekend, once we get passed the first few hours of trade, expect thin trade
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 7 cents. Export sales yesterday morning came in at 856,400 metric tons, one of the better numbers we’ve seen recently. Cooler weather continues to be a concern for the late-planted crop, if it stays in the forecast through the weekend, we would expect to see more premium come into the market. We are headed into a holiday weekend, once we get passed the first few hours of trade, we would not be surprised to see the volume start to thin out.

Technicals: Yesterday’s session was less than impressive, but we still believe the risk-reward favors the bull camp. Our support pocket from 363 ¾-369 remains intact, keeping our bias at Bullish. If that fails to hold, we will be back to Neutral. On the resistance side of things, 381 is the hurdle the bulls need to get over, that could open the door for an extension to the gap at 392 ¾.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 381**, 392 ¾***, 405-407**

Support: 363 ¾-369***, 338 ¾-343**

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: November soybeans managed to hold gains yesterday, finishing the session up 3 cents. That momentum has carried over into the early morning trade as we head into a holiday weekend. Export sales yesterday morning came in at 448,300 metric tons. Cooler temperatures and the possibility of an early frost is starting to put some premium back into the market, we are keeping our bias at Bullish/Neutral.

Technicals: Price action remains friendly which leads us to believe there could be more of a relief rally to come. With that said, there is stiff resistance from 890-892 ½. This pocket contains the 50 and 100-day moving average, a key Fibonacci retracement, and trendline resistance from the June highs.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 880-882**, 891 ½-896 ¾***, 921-924***

Support: 852 ½-856 ½****, 839 ¾-843 ¾**, 815 ½****

Wheat Futures (September)

Fundamentals: September wheat is in delivery and taking a bath in the overnight/early morning session, narrowing the spread between KC/ZW. We continue to believe there is an opportunity over the intermediate-term in that spread (short December Chicago, Long KC wheat).

Technicals: Money flow in the grain space has started to shift over the last few sessions which could be what the wheat market needs to stabilize. 3-star support was tested and held this morning; we have had that defined as 461 ¾-466. With that said, we are still skeptical of Chicago wheat but see more value in the KC contract.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 483 ½**, 493-500****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 461 ¾-466***, 442-446**, 427 ¼****

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