E-mini S&P Futures (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2865.50, down 17.75
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks reversed early gains yesterday and the S&P finished more than 1% from what is now a psychological ceiling at 2900. We noted here in the first half of the week that nothing ultimately changed from Friday’s news of fresh tariffs escalating the trade war. Although President Trump soothed the market’s reaction with his comments early Monday morning, the snapback was also due to the surprise news of China levying tariffs on $75 billion actually sinking in; the market does not like surprises and that ultimately exacerbated the sell-off in the immediate-term. The 30-year Bond this morning is exuding such uncertainties by hitting a fresh record low yield of 1.909, a move that signals continued volatility in equity markets. There is no major economic data from the U.S today but Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks at 11:20 CT, there is a 5-year Note auction at noon CT and San Francisco President Daly speaks at 4:30 pm CT.
Technicals: Blue Line Trade Alerts released a trade in the S&P this morning. Our pivot today in the S&P aligns our 2866.75 level with yesterday’s settlement. For the NQ, this is 7562.75-7575. Below these levels, the bears are in the driver’s seat on the session. Major three-star support in each has held at 2851.50-2855.50 and 7490-7504.50 and this level that aligns with Friday’s settlement has not been breached intraday this week; a move below here with strong volume would accelerate the selling. To the upside, our momentum indicator in the S&P aligns with the overnight high and a move above 2874.25-2878 would neutralize the weakness that we have seen since the second half of yesterday. We view resistance in the NQ at 7600.50-7618.25 in the same manner.
Resistance: 2974.25-2878**, 2888.50-2891.50**, 2899.50-2904.25***, 2914.75**, 2932-2944.25***
Support: 2851.50-2855.50***, 2831-2834*, 2817.75-2823.25**, 2810.25-2811.75***
Resistance: 7600.50-7618.25**, 7648.50**, 7681*, 7731.75--7748**, 7789.50-7808***
Support: 7490-7504.50***, 7442*, 7385.25-7396.75***, 7353.25**