Pro Farmer Crop Tour Bullish for Corn Futures

Pro Farmer tour has South Dakota corn yields at 154.1 bpa, down 13% from last year
Ohio at 154.4 bpa, down 14% from last year
Weekly crop progress report was released
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: The weekly crop progress report was released yesterday afternoon, showing the U.S. corn conditions at 56% Good/Excellent, down 1% from the previous week and 2% below expectations. This coupled with friendly, though early, results from the crop tour have led to a bid in the overnight session. The Pro Farmer tour has South Dakota corn yields at 154.1 bpa, down 13% from last year. They have Ohio at 154.4 bpa, down 14% from last year.

Techncials: The market is trying to work higher, a silver lining for the bull camp, but there’s still a lot of work to be done on the chart. The first road bump comes in at 381, Friday’s high. Above that is the gap at 392 ¾. The bears are in control until we see consecutive closes above that gap. On the support side of things, 363 ¾-369 is the pocket we are watching. This represents contract lows and the most recent lows, last week. Though we want to be friendly the market for fundamental reasons, the technicals just aren’t there; for that reason, we are keeping our bias at Neutral.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 381**, 392 ¾***, 405-407**

Support: 363 ¾-369***

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: November soybean futures continued to drift lower yesterday but have stabilized in the overnight/early morning trade, thanks to a friendly start to the Pro Farmer crop tour and yesterday’s crop progress report. Crop progress showed Good/Excellent ratings at 53%, 1% below estimates and last week’s read.

Technicals: The market is trying to stabilize above our support pocket from 854 ½-860 ½, if the bulls fail to hold ground, we could see a bigger technical breakdown. The next pocket of support comes in from 839 ¾-843 ¾ but a run at contract lows wouldn’t be out of the question. On the resistance side of things, there isn’t a lot until 891 ½-896 ¾.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 891 ½-896 ¾**, 921-924***

Support: 854 ½-860 ½****, 839 ¾-843 ¾**, 815 ½****

Wheat Futures (September)

Fundamentals: Weakness in the broader grain complex spilled over into yesterday’s wheat trade, money flow in the sector is on the forefront of our radar for the time being. Weekly export inspections came in at 485,905 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: The market has been making lower highs and lower lows since double topping in the back half of June, keeping the bears in control of the technical landscape. First support comes in 469 ½, a break and close below opens the door for a whoosh lower. The next line in the sand doesn’t come in until contract low, 442 ¼-446. On the resistance side of things, the bulls want to chew through 483 ½-486 for a chance to work back to the psychologically significant $5.00 handle.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 483 ½-486**, 501 ½-506 ¼****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 469 ½***, 442-446**, 427 ¼****

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