No Weekend Weather Premium Overnight, U.S. Delegates Meet In China On Monday

US officials will head to China on Monday
Weather premium rally has been trend over the last three Fridays
Trade tariff talk premium over weekend
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Not much has changed on the fundamental forefront over the last 24-hours. The last three Fridays we have seen prices stabilize and rally as weather uncertainty over the weekend adds a bit of premium. Option expiration today may also play a role in price action today. Export sales yesterday morning came in at 507,800 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: Though the market was softer yesterday, it did little to change the technical landscape. We have seen prices consolidating, trading the price of 430 for six consecutive sessions. Our support and resistance levels remain intact from yesterday.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 435 ¼-437****, 447-450***, 473-475****

Support: 418 ¼-420 ½***, 404 ½-406 ¼****

 

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: Soybean futures failed to gain traction yesterday, but prices remain halfway stable within the technical wedge. Weather will be a bigger question mark for beans as we head into August. US delegates are headed to China on Monday, we don’t expect much to come of it but wouldn’t be surprised to see the possibility of something getting done offer some sort of support. With that said, our intermediate-term bias remains Bearish. Export sales yesterday came in at 145,600 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: The market is forming a wedge > , posting higher lows and lower highs. Technicians usually look for this to lead to a bigger directional move, which may be fundamentally driven in this case. First resistance comes in at 915 ¼, but the more significant pocket comes in from 922-924. A move out above here could take us to 938 ¾. On the support side of things, the bulls want to defend our support pocket from 898 ½-900.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 915 ¼**, 922-924 ***, 934 ¼-938 ¾****

Support: 898 ½-900**, 887 ½-891 ¾***, 855 ½-862 ½****

Wheat Futures (September)

Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at 659,800 metric tons, above the top end of expectations. We continue to believe that rallies will be mostly relief and will be opportunities to sell. We have been working with clients in the KC/Chicago wheat spread for the past few weeks, selling Chicago and buying the KC contract; at times getting heavier on the short side of Chicago.

Technicals: The market worked into our first resistance pocket; we have defined that as 498-502. A move out above here warrants a continuation towards 510-512 ¼, a pocket where we would like to help clients sell against, more aggressively. On the support side of things, our first pocket remains intact from 483 ¼-486 ¼.

Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 498-502***, 510-512 ¼***, 516 ¾**

Support:483 ¼-486 ¼***, 473 ¾-475****

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