Traders Look For Weekend Weather Premium Trend, U.S. Delegates Meet In China On Monday

US officials will head to China on Monday
Weather premium rally has been trend over the last three Fridays
Trade tariff talk premium over weekend
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 ½ cents, trading in a range of 9 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 7,500 contracts.

Fundamentals: Corn futures have been choppy in the last two sessions, trading both sides of unchanged as market participants wait for new news to develop and give this market more clarity. Perhaps we see weather premium work itself back into the market before the weekend, this has been a trend over the last three Fridays. We will get some minor headlines over the next few weeks, the weekly exports, crop progress, etc, but the big-ticket item will be the August 12th USDA report. Export sales this morning came in at 507,800 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: Volume in yesterday’s trade was the lightest since July 5th, offering little conviction of price on either side. The market failed to gain traction above our pivot pocket yesterday, we had defined that as 435 ¼-437, which remains the first resistance in today’s trade. A conviction close above here opens the door for a possible extension towards 447-450.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 435 ¼-437****, 447-450***, 473-475****

Support: 418 ¼-420 ½***, 404 ½-406 ¼****

 

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 3 ½ cents, trading in a range of 11 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 4,500 contracts.

Fundamentals: As with corn futures, soybeans continue to chop around as participants wait for new news to give the market a new direction. We would not be surprised to see the market hold water into the weekend where we may get weather premium and trade talk premium; US delegates are headed to China on Monday. Export sales this morning came in at 145,600 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: The market is forming a wedge>, posting higher lows and lower highs. Technicians usually look for this to lead to a bigger directional move, which may be fundamentally driven in this case. First resistance comes in at 915 ¼, but the more significant pocket comes in from 922-924. A move out above here could take us to 938 ¾. ON the support side of things, the bulls want to defend our support pocket from 898 ½-900.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 915 ¼**, 922-924 ***, 934 ¼-938 ¾****

Support: 898 ½-900**, 887 ½-891 ¾***, 855 ½-862 ½****

Wheat Futures (September)

Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 10 cents, trading in a range of 11 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 5,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 659,800 metric tons, above the top end of expectations. We continue to believe that rallies will be mostly relief and will be opportunities to sell. We have been working with clients in the KC/Chicago wheat spread for the past few weeks, selling Chicago and buying the KC contract; at times getting heavier on the short side of Chicago.

Technicals: The market is working into our first resistance pocket; we have defined that as 498-502. A move out above here warrants a continuation towards 510-512 ¼, a pocket where we would like to help clients sell against, more aggressively. On the support side of things, our first pocket remains intact from 483 ¼-486 ¼.

Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 498-502***, 510-512 ¼***, 516 ¾**

Support:483 ¼-486 ¼***, 473 ¾-475****

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