Selling Pressure In Wheat as Harvest Pressure Continues, Crop Progress Report

Selling pressure persisted in wheat as harvest pressure continues
Corn Crop Progress came in at 57% good/excellent, down 1% from last week
Soybean Crop Progress showed good/excellent ratings at 54%, unchanged
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 10 cents, trading in a range of 11 ½ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 27,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: December corn futures were under pressure yesterday, erasing all the (weather uncertainty) premium that was built in ahead of the weekend. Weather came in better than expected and here we are, right back near Thursday’s trade. Crop Progress came in at 57% good/excellent, down 1% from last week and 1% below expectations. Weekly export inspections came in at 438,045 metric tons, below the low end of estimates.

Technicals: The chart continues to soften up which leaves the door open for a run at 418 ¼-420 ½, this pocket represents the gap from May 28th, the July 1st and 2nd lows, and the 50% retracement (middle of the range from the contract lows to the contract highs. We view this pocket as a good risk/reward area to look to the buy-side, whether that be covering shorts or buying long. First resistance doesn’t come in until 435 ¼-437. Our bias is Neutral/Bullish as we head into today’s session.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 435 ¼-437**, 447-450***, 473-475****

Support: 418 ¼-420 ½***, 404 ½-406 ¼****

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 13 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 17 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 10,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Weather premium was pumped into the market on Friday and sucked back out yesterday. You can expect to see that type of volatility to continue as we forge through the crop development stages. Crop Progress showed good/excellent ratings at 54%, this was unchanged from the previous week and inline with expectations. Weekly export inspections came in at 559,462 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Techncals: We have been consolidating for the better part of the last month and prices look destined to retest the bottom end of the range, 887 ½-891 ¾. This pocket represents a key retracement along with other previously important price points. A break and close below here and we could see a breakdown take us closer to 862 ½. First resistance today comes in at 915 ¼.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 915 ¼**, 921 ¼-924 ¼**, 934 ¼-938 ¾****

Support: 898 ½-900**, 887 ½-891 ¾***, 855 ½-862 ½****

Wheat Futures (September)

Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 15 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 18 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 10,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Selling pressure persisted in wheat as harvest pressure continues to be a major headwind. Winter wheat harvest is now 69% complete. The lack of strength in the broader grain sector only added fuel to the fire. We would not be surprised to see this weakness continue over the coming weeks; we are keeping our bias as outright Bearish. Weekly export inspections came in at 433,117 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: The market tested first technical support into yesterday’s close, we had defined that as 486 ¼-491 ¾. IF the market breaks below here, we would not be surprised to see prices bleed down to 473 ¾. On the resistance side of things, the bulls want to reclaim ground above they psychologically significant $5.00 handle.

Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 498-502***, 513-516 ¾***, 562 ¾**

Support: 486 ¼-491 ¾**, 473 ¾-475****

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