Weather Markets Influence Grain Markets, Trade Talks Still At Standstill

Futures Markets trade off of the ever-changing weather forecasts,
Volatility in grain futures alive and well
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 9 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 6,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: The markets continue to be trade off of the ever-changing weather forecasts, keeping volatility alive and well. As stated in previous reports over the last week, both the bulls and bears will have days of vindication in the coming weeks and months. Though we are off of the highs from Monday morning, we are still near unchanged from last week, before we got the bearish USDA report. Yesterday’s weekly EIA ethanol report showed ethanol production at 1,066,000 barrels per day, up 19,000 from the previous week. Export Sales this morning came in at 333 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: The market held technical support on Tuesday and failed against resistance yesterday, bring prices right back down to our support pocket from 430 ¼-435. This is a must hold pocket for the remainder of the week, a break and close below could take us back to 418 ¼-420 ½. This pocket represents the gap from May 28th, the July 1st and 2nd lows, and the 50% retracement (middle of the range from the contract lows to the contract highs.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 447-450**, 464-465**, 473-475****

Support: 430 ¼-435***, 418 ¼-420 ½****

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Soybeans (November)

Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 5 ½ cents, trading in a range of 13 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 5,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Soybean futures continue to soften on lack of friendly news on the wires. Weather concerns have been alleviated for some areas, as rain clouds start to pop up in areas that need it. Trade talks with China are still at a standstill and there’s a growing concern that this feud could change the demand landscape for good. Export sales this morning came in at 326,300 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: In our Monday morning report we noted that: “915 is a pivot point for us, a break below here opens the door for a run back near 890.”, this is continuing to play out this morning with prices inching lower. 887 ½-891 ¾ is first technical support, if the bulls cannot defend this pocket the bears could pounce and accelerate the selling, pressing prices closer to 860.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 907-915 ½***, 934 ¼-938 ¾***, 948-950**

Support: 887 ½-891 ¾***, 875 ¼**, 855 ½-862 ½****

 

Wheat Futures (September)

 

Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 2 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 12 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 3,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 347,300 metric tons, within the range of expectations. markets continue to be trade off of the ever-changing weather forecasts, in total control and keeps our bias as outright bearish.

Technicals: The head and shoulders pattern cemented from Monday’s reversal continues to keep the bears in control. The market is in our support pocket from 498-502 in the early morning trade, a break and close below opens the door for a whoosh towards 473 ¾-475.

Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 514 ¼**, 531 ½-536 ¼**, 562 ¾**

Pivot: 498-502

Support: 486 ¼-491 ¾**, 473 ¾-475****

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