Corn and Soybean Futures Weather Market Choppy Trade

Crop conditions improved over the last week
Hot and dry forecast could keep bid to grain weather market
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 6 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 11 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 18,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: It is a full-blown weather market, and that means a choppy trade for the foreseeable future. Crop conditions improved over the last week, but a hot and dry forecast could keep them from improving much more, ahead of Monday’s Crop Progress report. On top of weather uncertainty, there are still a lot of question marks over planted acres. These concerns will likely keep a floor in the market until we get a better understanding of how many acres got planted.

Technicals: There was a trendline from the contract lows on May 13th that was tested and held on July 2nd, 11th, and again yesterday. That trendline comes in at 435 and there is additional support down to 430, including the 50-day moving average, a retracement level, and previously important price points. We like buying the first test of this pocket and for that reason we are putting a bullish tilt back in our bias. If the bulls fail to defend support, we would neutralize our bias and wait to see if we wouldn’t have another opportunity down near 418 ¼-420 ½.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 447-450**, 464-465**, 473-475****

Support: 430 ¼-435***, 418 ¼-420 ½****

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 14 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 15 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 10,500 contracts.

Fundamentals: As mentioned in the corn section, majority of market participants are keeping their eye on weather and the affects it may have on crop development. Crop conditions improved over the last week, but a hot and dry forecast could keep them from improving much more, ahead of Monday’s Crop Progress report. On top of weather uncertainty, there are still a lot of question marks over planted acres. There were talks of trade talks progressing but that seems to be the favorite recycled headline when there’s nothing else to report.

Technicals: Soybeans worked lower yesterday but have managed to find some technical support just above the psychologically significant $9.00 handle. Yesterday’s pivot point came in at 914 ¼, that will be today’s as well. This represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the contract highs to the contract lows. A conviction close above here opens the door for a run back at the top end of the recent range. We were bearish to start the week but have turned our bias to Neutral.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 934 ¼-938 ¾***, 948-950**

Pivot: 915 ¼

Support: 887 ½-891 ¾***, 875 ¼**, 855 ½-862 ½****

 

Wheat Futures (September)

 

Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 ½ cents, trading in a range of 9 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 1,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Wheat futures were softer yesterday but held their own all things considered (broader grain complex under more pressure). Though we still have a bearish tilt on wheat, we would not be surprised to see a pop higher in the very near term. If this were to happen, we would likely work with clients to sell the rally.

Technicals: The bulls were able to defend our 3-star support pocket from 498-502 in yesterday’s session, setting up for a relief rally here in the early morning trade. First resistance today comes in at 514, this is the 200-day moving average. A close above here opens the door for an extension towards 531 ½-536 ¼.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 514 ¼**, 531 ½-536 ¼**, 562 ¾**

Support: 498-502***, 486 ¼-491 ¾**, 473 ¾-475****

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