Corn and Soybean Futures Fall After Crop Progress Report

Corn futures position now Neutral after report
Soybean futures expectations Bearish/Neutral after report
Wheat futures expectations Bearish
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 12 ½ cents, trading in a range of 18 ¾ cents.

Fundamentals: In yesterday’s report we went outright Neutral in our bias, for the first time since turning bullish two-months ago. The premium built into prices in the back half of the week was excessive in our opinion and that has led to a round of profit taking to start the week. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report did little to support the market as good/excellent ratings improved 1% from the previous week, average estimates were for ratings to drop.

Technicals: In yesterday’s report we noted: “Corn technicals looked strong in the back half of last week’s trade, but we would not be surprised to see the market chop around over the next two weeks. A choppy trade is tough for directional traders but will present some great opportunities for those willing to be nimbler. Prices are working off of the overnight highs, if this carries over into the floor open, we could see prices retest 447-450, previous resistance.”. With some help from yesterday’s Crop Progress report we are breaking below that support pocket which leaves the door open for a run at 429 ¾-431 ¼. Our bias remains Neutral.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 464-465**, 473-475****

Pivot: 447-450

Support: 430 ¼-431 ¼***, 418 ¼-420 ½****


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Soybeans Futures (November)

Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 11 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 18 cents.

Fundamentals: In yesterday’s report we turned our bias to Neutral/Bearish after the market ran out of new news to break the market out above technical resistance. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report is keeping that downward momentum intact. That report showed that good/excellent ratings increased 1%, many were expecting a drop of 1%. The US and China are set to discuss trade this work via phone, something the market isn’t counting on being substantive.

Technicals: The market is hovering near the 100-day moving average at 908 ½, a continuing breakdown below here leaves the door open for a retest of 887 ½-891 ¾. At this point we would likely neutralize our bearish bias and consider being buyers with clients. On the resistances side of things, the bulls need to reclaim and achieve consecutive closes above 915 ¼.

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 934 ¼-938 ¾***, 948-950**

Pivot: 915 ¼

Support: 887 ½-891 ¾***, 875 ¼**, 855 ½-862 ½****


Wheat Futures (September)


Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 14 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 25 ½ cents.

Fundamentals: We have had a Bearish bias on wheat since last week and that remains in place today. Ample global supplies and relatively dismal demand has been a headwind at these elevated prices. As mentioned, several times over the last week, we have been working with clients in the KC/Chi wheat spread. Buying KC and selling Chicago; some clients doing the spread with equal contracts and some heavier on selling Chicago.

Technicals: In yesterday’s report we talked about a breakdown below the 200-day moving average (514 ½) opening the door for a run at our support pocket from 498-502, this was achieved in the early morning trade. If the bulls cannot defend this pocket, we could see accelerated selling take us down to the mid 470’s. We remain outright Bearish.

Bias: Bearish

Resistance: 514 ¼***, 531 ½-536 ¼**, 562 ¾**

Support: 498-502***, 486 ¼-491 ¾**, 473 ¾-475****

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