Crude Oil Futures (August)
Last week’s close: Settled at 57.43, up 0.36 on Friday and 4.66 on the week
Fundamentals: Crude Oil tacked on another 1% overnight as tensions surrounding Iran continue to rise. Washington said this morning it will announce additional sanctions to the already crippling list. This comes after President Trump approved and then called off a military strike Friday with hopes of diplomacy instead. Now, the U.S is looking to pull together a “global coalition” with the likes of allies Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E quickly joining in order to stand united against Iran. Adding support to Gasoline prices which have outpaced Heating Oil since Friday is a refinery fire in Philadelphia. After rallying more than 10% from its recent low, the path of least resistance is higher for Crude Oil, but traders must understand the headline driven tape. Inventory expectations are another day out so the focus will be Iran today.
Technicals: Crude Oil settled Friday at our first key resistance. We were Bullish in Bias through last week and heading into the weekend. Although the tape remains favorable and as we said above the path of least resistance is higher, this is not when you chase price action. Therefore, we have Neutralized our Bias just a bit. Still, pullbacks that hold 56.50-56.75 will remain immediate-term bullish and very constructive signaling that a move to 60.32-60.80 is imminent.
Resistance: 57.33-57.42**, 58.50**, 59.70-59.80**, 60.32-60.80***
Support: 56.50-56.75***, 55.59**, 54.48-54.99***, 53.83**, 53.21-53.26**, 51.76-52.17***