The state of bitcoin and the crypto-asset market, Q3 2018
Anecdotally, the crypto market appears to be following the classic bubble “blueprint.” After hitting the delusion/greed/”New Paradigm” stage at the start of the year, it feels as if traders are well into the bear market emotionally by now. Indeed, certain segments of the market may be showing signs of capitulation and despair, and even once we put in a sustainable bottom and return to the long-term trend, it may still be a while before prices begin to “take off” again:
3. Technical: $6,000 Support Key as 200-Day MA Caps Prices
As we hinted above, Bitcoin remains in a downtrend based on the textbook definition (lower lows and lower highs). That said, bulls have stepped in repeatedly to defend $6,000 level, which also marked the final retracement before the big blowoff top at the end of last year. If this key level gives way, bears will likely look to target previous-resistance-turned-support in the $5,000-$5,100 area next. Meanwhile, longer-term bulls will want to see Bitcoin break back above its 200-day moving average and bearish trendline resistance near $8,000 before feeling more comfortable dipping their toes in. Only if we can clear that key barrier can bulls start to think about another surge to rival the one we saw late last year.