Afternoon look at gold, crude and Treasuries

August 16, 2018 02:42 PM

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having neutralized the open’s gap down before closing positive Wednesday, the recovery attempt was free to extend at anytime Thursday. Overnight action did probe above the 1.1385 buy signal, which intraday action still tested as support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The four-day sequence through Wednesday’s third day had indicated Thursday would likely close positive. The $18 per oz. overnight drop to $1,167.00 benefited most from the influence, essentially forcing a recovery back above Wednesday’s 1185.00 close. The sequence can repeat indefinitely, so the trend reversal signal remains at 1194.70.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A slightly lower low overnight testing 14.32 was easily recovered to gap up Thursday and extend to 14.80. At least a dip down to 14.45 is likely before a more durable rally can begin. That said, an attraction down to the low can be delayed by a bigger bounce anyway, just not by a reliable bounce.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Resolving the two-day consolidation under Friday’s high to finally probe higher Wednesday was never extended overnight. Thursday’s open back under Friday’s high was extended back into the interim range, still not signaling a resolution either way.

Crude oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging flat-to-higher Thursday stopped short of attacking the $66.10 per barrel buy signal, meanwhile leaving the decline vulnerable to extending down.

Natural gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness enabled a negative knee-jerk reaction to the news that took price into negative territory. Another lower low has room down to 2.85 while still being able to recover.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog