Afternoon look at gold, crude, Treasuries & more

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce held a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s post-open drop. Resuming the decline without first bouncing any higher would suggest a low is near. Meanwhile, avoiding a second consecutive lower close has avoided confirming Monday’s breakout.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce held a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s post-open drop. Resuming the decline without first bouncing any higher would suggest a low is near. Meanwhile, avoiding a second consecutive lower close has avoided confirming Monday’s breakout.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Tuesday remained within Friday’s range, still not extending the rally, but also not rejecting it. At least a probe of fresh highs is likely, if not resuming the rally. A deeper dip has room down to 143-12 before signaling the trend is reversing back down.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline resumed Tuesday after Monday’s weak bounce had consolidated Thursday night’s crash into the weekend. The pattern offers no buy signal, and any aggressively higher open would be likely to reverse back down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Opening Tuesday above 67.65-67.90 would have triggered a buy signal if maintained through the close. But post-open action almost immediately began reversing down, and probed negative territory down to the 66.75 sell signal. Breaking either way would be credible for trending in that direction. Wednesday’s EIA is not being greeted from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No pullback followed several days of consolidating narrowly in the target range that was met last week, before probing slightly higher Tuesday. That qualifies as a breakout, but no consecutive higher close Wednesday would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily.