Major Market Ranges for the Week of Aug. 13: The Trendy Crowd

The coming week of Aug. 13, 2018, sets up trending pivot math concurrent with narrow ranges (means breakouts) in the S&P 500 (countertrend bounce & maybe down), Japanese yen, crude oil, and gold (extreme narrow range block/rectangle on daily chart). The Eurodollar has already made 5 easily-countable down-waves (Monthly chart) since the swing top I identified in advance months ago, and it has sideways pivots for this week but extreme trending monthly pivots into Sept.

I look for the monthly 20-, 50-moving average simultaneous breakdown to give some lower euro pricing, but the daily 1,000-moving average and weekly 200-moving averages are right under current prices in support of a bounce near here. Soybeans have a narrow range but sideways weekly pivots, and can thus have mild trending behavior.

Mathematically and statistically speaking, Bitcoin, the Eurodollar and soybeans have sideways pivots for the coming week, but do not count on boring trading or iron condor option spreads with any symbol, because Soybeans have breakout-lower pivots for August, crude oil is breaking out from a long narrow range on multiple higher time frames, namely monthly pivots, and Bitcoin is also testing extended ranges but may bounce to $7,000 (daily chart). 

I believe crude oil and the S&P 500 can bounce upside somewhat here, as can the Euro somewhere slightly lower before monthly chart traders short for a 6th wave up and 7th down wave. Gold continues to show me a fast-rally breakout setup, although I have been consistently wrong about when. However, my low still holds which is how the short put spreads win. So, let me try again: I think it’s this week!

My best predictions for this closing week include my crude oil projected high of $70.05, with a $69.92 actual high, as well as my statement not to be too bullish with this week’s up move due to a bearish monthly chart and breakout/breakdown setups- both of which happened. The Euro, also as I predicted went lower on lower weekly pivots to find support and bounce, except it went back down and, unpredictably, even lower on Thursday evening. My separate article about short side perspectives on the S&P 500 preceded the Friday drop by two days.

My worst prediction was Bitcoin whose actual high was lower than my projected low, nullifying my entire projected range! My most curious, entertaining prediction was the harmonic vibration Soybeans price level I pronounced would be $878.00 per bushel but actually was $887.00/barrel--I had the correct integers but in the wrong order! Then, it dropped too early (pivots breakout lower setup was for this week but started Friday and may not fight the monthly bull hammer candle too strongly, even if it goes lower).
 

List/Tracking of Open Option Spread Trade Ideas

ZN (10-year Treasury Notes) Long- monthly chart 121’000, or 122 options trade into Aug.-Sept.

S&P 500 short side- ends Fri. Aug. 10, price went under 2,850 call spread strike Thu./Fri.- big Win!

Gold long- Open monthly options trade into Sept. as Gold bounces off lows I recognized. If a short put spread is profiting from time decay, keep it. If in a long call/call spread and time decay is eating away profit potential with price hovering over the lows, exit near here soon. I continue to track this trade.

Crude oil Short- It is a monthly chart short trade as core position into the month’s end and into next month. Close winning monthly chart 2-3 month short play with options, if profitable.

Soybeans Weeklys Iron Condor or Long- Closed a winner longer-term Iron Condor, as price bounced to go sideways for time decay, price cooperation and volatility collapse until Fri.  

Next Week’s (Ending Aug. 17) Predicted Ranges (At/beyond these levels):

 

S&P 500

High: 2860/Low: 2828      

Japanese yen

High:9084/Low: 9027                

Eurodollar

High: 1.1628/Low: 1.1520

Gold

High:$1,233/Low:$1,215

Crude oil

High: $68.04/ Low: $65.55             

Soybeans

High:$9.16/Low: $8.88

Bitcoin (XBT)

High:$6,725/Low:$6,200      

     

Projected & Actual Ranges for the week ending Aug. 10 (as of Friday morning, Aug. 10)

S&P 500 

High:2838/Low 2807; Actual 2863-2825

Japanese yen

High:9034/Low: 8950; Actual 9055-8990      

Euro

High:1.170/Low: 1.160,; Actual 1.166-1.154

Gold

High:$1,231/Low:$1,216; Actual: $1,226-$1,213

Crude oil

High:$70.03/ Low:$67.83; Actual  $69.92-$66.32

Soybeans

High:$9.10/Low: $8.76; Actual $9.14-$8.67

Bitcoin (XTB)

High:$7,800/Low:$7,170 ; Actual: $7,150-$6,110

 


The above chart shows the VIX daily chart candle on far right was a bull-engulfing hammer candlestick under narrowed Bollinger Bands, supporting the S&P 500 short side trade idea Thu. (VIX in theory goes up while indices go down in inverse proportionality). Source for both charts: Think or Swim

 


Above Chart: I marked the S&P 500 triple divergences in Fisher where higher prices are not supported by Fisher understudy lines, and the three Fisher “SOAP” sell signals are a part of the understudy. Note the inverted hammer candle under the “high” bubble flag touching the yellow Camarilla pivot resistance I’ve been talking about for a few articles now and which preceded Friday’s price drops. 

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines.