Afternoon look at gold, crude & Treasuries

August 8, 2018 01:46 PM

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s interim weakness was recovered intraday. The downside momentum remains intact unless $1,229.00 per oz. were recovered on a closing basis.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping again Wednesday morning came the closest yet to neutralizing the 3-week old gap down at 15.25, which has been tested only overnight, and continues to inhibit a recovery. The continued delay and repeated “ineffectual optimism” suggests a deeper probe of fresh lows, first.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still not reacting back up from the 142-18 sell signal, let alone back above the 143-02 buy signal, further suggests — if not confirms — that Monday’s momentary probe above 143-02 was a false break that stretched the rubber band to snap back down.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing above Tuesday range overnight up to 1.1662 was rejected enough for Wednesday’s open to gap down to Tuesday’s low at the 1.1615 sell signal. The signal held, but its reaction remained within Tuesday’s range. Resolving down remains likely so long as Tuesday’s 1.1640 high holds as resistance.​

Crude oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s inside day and second consecutive session above the $68.35 per barrel pullback limit didn’t prevent gapping down Wednesday and trending down sharply through the morning .

Natural gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 2.93-2.95 target was fulfilled early Wednesday, which creates a little vulnerability ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. But not as much vulnerability as the position of strength of greeting the news from fresh highs. A knee-jerk reaction down would be likely to recover.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog