Major Market Ranges for the Week of July 30: Range Breaks, Pivot Breaks, Time Breaks

The week of July 30 presents breakout traders gold, Eurodollar and crude oil setups. All three are in narrow ranges on multiple time frames with inside-range pivots, compared to this week. Monthly pivots are also inside-range on the Eurodollar and crude oil, making this a time-pivots breakout as well. If one considers the last 10 days’ range as a time series, then half of its length could be rotated upwards/downwards in the price axis (use your finger’s distal phalanx for past 5-6 days and rotate 90-degrees up/down) to give a $71.00/barrel or $66.00/barrel target as a rough estimate that may seem today like a crazy place for price to be.

The Eurodollar has trending pivots for the coming week and a three-month narrow range buildout on the daily chart, which, if this is near the end of it, could produce a Fibonacci 50% level time pivot in 1.5 months for an early-September crazy price. Gold does not have a long sideways range box. All three have inside pivots that are slightly lower than current pivots on at least one timeframe these are in weekly pivots and in monthly pivots inside breakout setups and can produce enough force to reject or ignore pivot directions. The yen and Soybeans have strongly-trending intraweek pivots for next week. The truth is that all markets I track have at least one-time frame in an extreme narrow range, I just can’t guarantee they will all or any of them break out this coming week.

Since I like reversals, with the breakout thing not being my thing, I am watching Crude Oil and the S&P for some choppy reversals due to sideways pivot math, as these would be the only ones I would trade using my range projections to try to identify turning points.

My predictions for this week were mostly good, and the Gold swing low is still holding as of Fri. morning. My “S&P 500 crash test” drop has not yet occurred, and I may be wrong on it; I do, however, note that the Russell Index is not taking out recent swing highs, nor are consumer discretionary spending ETFs. VIX is not taking out lows and is making higher lows. I was able to see “Fear and Panic” (Mars’ Moons) from the balcony last night, as Mars approaches Earth in a 15-year rarity on Friday, July 27, 2018; No promise made that market fear or panic will fulfill my prediction on Friday.

You can view the moons in motion here.

 

List/Tracking of Open Option Spread Trade Ideas:

ZN (10-year Treasury Notes) Long- monthly chart 121’000, or 122 options trade into Aug.-Sept.

Nasdaq/30-Year Bonds- 2-week Naz short, bonds long options spreads expiry Aug. 3 or sooner.

Yen Weeklys Iron Condor or long- Close/closed as a win; mild short signals present daily chart.

Eurodollar Long- monthly chart wave-2 bounce trade into Aug.-Sept. Open but watch breakouts.

Gold long- weekly chart trade into Aug. with monthly options; weekly options long off daily chart into Aug. 3 expiration- Open.

Crude oil Short- Weekly long trade to $70 ($69.88 is close enough) short put spreads or long call spreads trade- Close/closed winning. Overall it is a monthly chart short trade as core position into the month’s end and into next month with a bounce countertrend Wave Two of anticipated three-wave drop. Close monthly chart 2-3 month short play with options, if profitable. Breaking.

Soybeans Weeklys Iron Condor or Long- Close a winner Friday, July 27, 2018. If in a longer-term bullish Iron Condor, enjoy time decay, as monthly chart is forming a red hammer low/volatility collapse situation.

Bitcoin Long- the daily chart extreme valuation reversal/inverted hammer signal 2 days ago is in effect with $7,600 target untouched as of yet. There is a weekly binary options way to play this symbol with less money than the futures contract. I’m not tracking this as a “trade.”  

Next Week’s (Ending July 27) Predicted Ranges: Caution: Less Accurate Due to Trending

 

S&P 500

High: 2854/Low: 2808     

Japanese yen

High:9053/Low: 8860               

Eurodollar

High:1.173/Low: 1.163

Gold

High:$1,245/Low:$1,225

Crude oil

High:$69.95/ Low:$68.56            

Soybeans

High:$8.99/Low: $8.54

Bitcoin (XBT)

High:$8,600/Low:$7,150    

Note: The technical format change offers numbers likely to be hit/exceeded versus zones.       

 

Projected & Actual Ranges from the Week Ending July 27 (as of Friday morning, July 27)

S&P 500 

High:2862/Low2763, Actual 2849-2792

Japanese yen

High:9013/Low: 8865, Actual 9073-8997     

Euro

High:1.185/Low: 1.167, Actual 1.180-1.167

Gold

High:$1,269/Low:$1,234, Actual $1,235-$1,218

Crude oil

High:$72.75/ Low:$68.00, Actual  $69.92-$67.56

Soybeans

High:$8.96/Low: $8.15, Actual $8.96-$8.57

Bitcoin (XTB)

High:$7,000/Low:$5,875, Actual: $8,500-$7,360

 


The above chart: shows the Nasdaq futures on a daily chart. The red inverted hammers with volume surges and momentum arrows highlighted indicate selling, although there aretrialss on the underside of these candles reflecting buyers also present. Note: Tuesday’s buy volume was less the Monday’s sell volume. Source for all charts: Think or Swim

Thia chart shows the volume profile (Volume-At-Price, TPO_Market Profile). You can see that Nasdaq futures are above fair value (red line) and at/over VAH (Value Area High) levels on all of these time frames ranging from intraday to weekly chart. My 7,300 target, or at least the 7,311 daily 20-moving average target could still print before next Friday’s expiration of the weeklys option spreads presented as an idea in my crash test article.

 

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines.