Afternoon look at gold, crude & Treasuries

July 26, 2018 03:06 PM

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another test of recent range’s upper-end was stationed overnight when Thursday dipped to Wednesday’s low. Ending in negative territory would have confirmed the “ineffectual optimism.” Otherwise, any early strength Friday would be credible for rallying into the weekend.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing the recent range’s upper-end overnight, but not trending up, left the intraday session on Friday to retrace back down to Wednesday’s close. That fills its gap, so early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Otherwise, closing any lower Friday would target a retest of the prior week’s lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 143-12 had held Wednesday’s bounce and resolved down overnight to attack Monday’s 142-21 low. Stopping optimistically short to within 1 tick of it before reacting up Thursday suggests that it will break lower.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1755 that began triggering post-close Wednesday up to 1.1787 was retraced ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy statement. But a blip-up quickly collapsed to under  1.1755,  and extended down sharply to 1.1682. The nearest buy signal is 1.1740, but just closing back above 1.1725 would at least continue forming a base.

Crude oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s close above $68.82 per barrel improved by a dime Thursday, helping to confirm the bounce is underway and targeting 70.30 then 71.75.

Natural gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing above 2.78 intraday in reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was retracted, but not reversed. Resuming the decline should be obvious Friday morning to avoid a bigger bounce.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog