Major Market Ranges for the Week of July 16: Fewer Breakouts

The coming week, starting Monday, July 16, should present more sideways markets than breakouts, although gold and the Eurodollar currently (as of Friday morning on July 13) have pivots with breakout lower setups.

Of course, the Eurodollar extreme candle reversal up signal and the gold moving average supports on multiple time frames with bullish candlestick patterns can cause a lower-pivots rejection in each/either symbol. Such a rejection would be bullishly volatile, whilst various groups of traders would, in theory, battle it out.

Bitcoin is in a narrow range for a breakout as well.

The markets with sideways pivots for next week are the S&P 500, yen, crude oil and soybeans. Which of these has a tradeable technical situation on weekly options? The S&P 500 has an extreme valuation $TICK sell signal on the daily chart, so a weeklys short call spread (2805/2800) could work, although shorting the Indices is consistently a bad idea for my trading. The yen is in a down spike on daily charts with sideways pivots on moving average supports (monthly 50-weekly, 200-daily, 1,000-period moving averages), making it ripe for an Iron Condor (.009000-.008850 strike zones).

When it comes to the crude oil market, we nailed the swing top high, which is now an extreme valuation doji breakdown (daily chart) straight to the $70.50 per barrel put strike price, making the $70.50 puts profitable at some degree, depending on whether one played weeklys or monthly options (I suggested both time frames). A countertrend bounce in sideways pivots could be a weeklys Iron Condor opportunity, but the monthly chart is so bearish so far this month (candle has not closed for July) that another wave down could occur.

 The soybeans gave me one inside green candle harami that I had a dream about on the weekly chart with the hammer candles but then broke, making new lows. It can still be a weeklys Iron Condor trade (850-800 strike zones).

Many markets made higher highs as I predicted, but some reversed lower against my “bullish fireworks” predictions- the S&P futures went fireworks crazy upwards. My short call spread idea on the yen would have worked, but my position reversal idea up never became reality- or hasn’t yet! I am modifying that part of the yen trade to become an Iron Condor, allowing traders the carte blanche to be partially right and still win a trade. Over half of my range numbers hit.


List/Tracking of Open Option Spread Trade Ideas

ZN (10-year Treasury Notes) Long- monthly chart 121’000, or 122 options trade into Aug.-Sept.

Yen weeklys Iron Condor- Sell .009000 call spread, .008850 put spread, slightly bullish skew

Eurodollar Long- monthly chart trade into Aug.-Sept., closed weeklys Monday winning new highs.

Gold long- weekly chart trade into Aug., price in low half of hammer tail now, could still short 1240/1235 put spread as of Fri. 10 a.m. (July 13). Closed weeklys winning on Monday new high.

Crude oil short was a weeklys trade on daily chart placed Fri./Mon.- closed/do close a winner.

Soybeans weeklys Iron Condor- sell $850 call spread, $800 put spread zones. Could widen strikes to monthly option issues, if the weekly chart hammers appeal simultaneously.

Bitcoin Long- I hope any traders who bought long Friday closed on the Monday gap up high before it reversed downside, taking out lows.


Predicted Ranges for the week of July 16: Caution, Less Accurate Due to Trending

S&P 500

High:2812/Low:2760   

Japanese Yen

High: 8981/Low: 8902             

Eurodollar

High:1.179/Low: 1.166

Gold

High:$1,257/Low:$1,237

Crude oil

High:$71.33/ Low:$69.90           

Soybeans

High:$8.76/Low: $8.24

Bitcoin (XBT)

High:

$6,595/Low:$5,860    

Note: The technical format change offers numbers likely to be hit/exceeded versus zones.       

 

Past Week’s Projected & Actual Ranges for the week of July 9 (as of Friday, July 13, morning)

S&P 500

High:2762/Low2727 Actual 2807-2761

Japanese yen

High:9144/Low: 9044, Actual 9105-8903     

Euro

High:1.183/Low: 1.168, Actual 1.185-1.170

Gold

High:$1,271/Low:$1,248, Actual $1,266-$1,241

Crude oil

High:$73.51/ Low:$71.81, Actual  $74.70-$69.23

Soybeans

High:$8.76/Low: $8.48, Actual $8.97-$8.38

Bitcoin (XTB)

High:$6,300/Low:$5,700, Actual: $6,800-$6,265

 


This Nasdaq Futures Daily Chart has a negative divergence of lower highs in Fisher understudy against a higher-higher in price with a candle extremely higher than narrowed Bollinger Bands. 7,300 target lies just inside the bands, should the setup/index lead markets lower. Source for all charts: Think or Swim


$TICK/Q or Nasdaq Tick (market internals tick strength/valuation) indicates the Extreme Candle Reversal high that is over halfway outside of narrowed  Bollinger Bands could lead markets lower. The S&P $TICK shows the opposite in today’s extreme value bull candle for more rallying, consistent with next week’s sideways/reversals pivots. The Fisher understudy and negative divergence in NQ chart above make more technical sense in bearish contexts than the S&P 500 extreme long candle. This may be an alert for futures contract spreaders should NQ come down and S&P go down less or sideways such that relative prices meet. 2,795 is next week’s S&P median pivot, and 7,350 is Nasdaq’s for a long put or short call spread between current prices and those lower weekly pivots with a probability slightly better than a coin toss.

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines.