Major market ranges & bull fireworks shows for the week of July 9

The coming week (July 13) should yield an array of trending bullish breakouts, upticks, and up-to-sideways plays (except bearish-sideways crude oil). How are we going to know which bull trades to take/place that are clear signals or high-probability wins? I don’t know. I can lay out the information I have for informed/educated reader decisions that include the countertrade perspectives.

First, the monthly chart long ten-year notes/bonds trade is making progress, currently showing progressively higher lows, and 122’000 targets pull overhead, after a snapdown next week. Bonds are not one of my main symbols, and the excitement truly is in other symbols.

The S&P 500 futures are flashing extreme reversal long candle signals on both the weekly and three-day charts, although bear sigs on higher time frames may eventually prevail. The trending-math pivots for next week, as of Thursday are in the inside breakout position (overlapping this week’s, indicating a narrow range) with median pivots higher than this week (bullish indication). Warning note: bond bull trade and monthly chart sell signals in some indices oppose this trade beyond next week, so weekly options or calendar/diagonal spreads into two weeks are my proposed timeline and risk level of under $500.00, presuming you wouldn’t miss that amount.

The yen has trending pivots and an inside breakout lower pivots setup in the context of mixed candles/time frames(weekly chart bull engulf, daily inverted sell hammers)- this could produce more profits/risk due to vagueness in direction. Taking a short call spread to reverse position?

The Eurodollar is cooking up a trade for us, currently on simmer in that next week’s pivots are trending, in an inside breakout higher condition with the breakout already changing those pivots Friday morning as I write this, and all 4 time frames are in narrow range constriction with a hammer candle series on both the weekly 80-moving average and the monthly 20/50-moving average crossover setup that hasn’t happened yet. Monthly and weekly extreme candle reversal long signals are also preserved and intact. It is an all-July bull spread.

Gold, while giving us sideways pivots and moderate ranges currently for next week, has hammer lows after cascade down moves on both the monthly and weekly charts. Prices are on the weekly 200- and monthly 50-moving averages. Gold also is an extreme reversal candlestick signal on monthly/weekly charts but without momentum support. It is still a July-August bull spread.

The lonely baby bear is crude oil with extreme valuation reversal sell candle signals on monthly, weekly and daily charts over narrowed Bollinger Bands, with momentum support in 3-day, weekly, monthly charts (monthly chart has negative divergence). Because one wouldn’t short the bullish telephone pole green candles, nor should one expect reversals in trending pivots, we can’t just take an outright short position. So, my best advice is to short a call spread near current price risking no more money than you can throw into the trash or buy a $70.50 per barrel put spread for both 1-month and 3-month expirations, as that is my target and the monthly median pivot that hits over 50% of the time. It is a less-risky way to short a market making new highs.

Soybeans are in narrow ranges on multiple time frames with sideways pivots on next week and inside candles, albeit red. Thus, I can’t hallucinate green inside harami candles into existence for you, although I had a dream about green, inside-range bullish breakouts setting up soon in the beans. Do not trade Trevor’s dreams in the beans! Wait for some actual bullish green candles.

Bitcoin has a 3-day chart narrow range and a bull engulfing candle with Volume Spread Analysis signals and two momentum up arrows! Due to gap ups this week and overall risk of cryptocurrencies until the crypto index is formalized/approved, please wait for a throwback down into the gap before buying long the coin. Let me add, as an anecdotal note, that I drive multiple levels of rideshare service with a “For Hire” driver’s license and I talk to younger generations daily who are holding on tightly to their crypto investments for fun, beliefs in crypto evolution/necessity, for housing purchases, for the as-of-yet unnamed crypto index, for the hyper need to be right, and for the rebellion of crypto. I also wear a Bitcoin necklace pendant that I handmade. So, while I struggle to predict it, am scared of it, and often want to delete it from my list, I am predicting a reversal rally off lows in next two weeks. Bullish the Bitcoin!  

I will be tracking the following as Open Trades assuming a mix of weekly/monthly option issues: Long ZN (10-year Treasury Notes), Long Eurodollar, gold, Bitcoin and short crude oil.

 

Predicted ranges for the week of July 9 -- Caution: Less accurate due to trending

S&P 500

High: 2762/Low, 2727 Actual 2758-2693  

Japanese yen

High: 9144/Low: 9044, Actual 9198-9101            

Eurodollar

High: 1.183/Low: 1.168, Actual 1.179-1.159

Gold

High: $1,271/Low: $1,248, Actual $1,274-$1,249

Crude oil

High: $73.51/ Low: $71.81, Actual  $73.86-$67.72           

Soybeans

High: $8.76/Low: $8.48, Actual $8.99-$8.62

Bitcoin (XBT)

High: $6,750/Low:$6,344, Actual: $6,345-$5,980 

Note: The technical format change offers numbers likely to be hit/exceeded versus zones.       

 

Projected & actual ranges for the week ending July 6 (as of Friday morning)

S&P 500

High:2758/Low2722, Actual 2748-2698

Japanese yen

High:9132/Low: 9040, Actual 9113-9044     

Euro

High:1.1800/Low: 1.165, Actual 1.181-1.165

Gold

High: $1,256/Low:$1,242, Actual $1,262-$1,238

Crude oil

High:$75.51/ Low: $72.24 , Actual  $75.27-$72.18

Soybeans

High: $9.00/Low: $8.63, Actual $8.85-$8.53

Bitcoin (XTB)

High: $6,300/Low: $5,700, Actual: $6,800-$6,265



The above daily Bitcoin Futures XBT chart shows in my reversal/congestion breakout grid some signs of bottoming/reversing. Positive divergences of higher lows in understudies against upper graph’s lower lows in price exists. Also, note the Bollinger band percent study where I marked an “X” in the upper right price graph from the signal in the BB% study underneath that represents either the halfway down point or the reversal lows area (and I never know which it is at first)--and the halfway point already occurred. The target has been hit on far right and far left (green dots on far left price chart are a Fibonacci-related autotarget study). See your own charts with ADX, MACD, CCI as one set, Money Flow Index and Mass index as the middle chart set, and Williams%, Bollinger Band Percent and Chaikin Money Flow as some leading indicators of reversals/congestion breakouts. Please also observe the gap down pricing skipped- the universe hates a void- as do algorithm trading programs, so let’s see if price eventually fills that void with a bounce/retest/probing. Source for all charts: Think or Swim

 


Above Chart: Multi-time Frame Volume Profile Studies (Add Volume Profile to your Price Graphs and it may be named “TPO” or “Market Profile” or “Volume-At-Price”). The Yellow lines at the high/low areas are Value Area High and Value Area Low (VAH, VAL) and an indication of fair valuation. The red line is Fair Value in this Auction Market Theory market approach if one wants to read more about it. Some day traders look for intraday highs/lows from volume Profile charts. The charts on the right show price under the Value Area Lows on both Daily and Weekly charts, with volume drying up, represented by the shrinking amount of horizontal blue markings. If price is under fair valuation and no volume is going off in trades, then the computer programs will soon seek large orders wherever they are in order to facilitate trades and more efficiency in markets- likely above with 8,700 a current fair value red line on weekly chart far right. 6,500 is the daily chart fair value in the middle (red line) of the middle chart, and 7,000 is the Low Volume Node (LVN) where the gap down occurred since price did not trade there and is represented by a notch in the blue mass of volume. 

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines.