Oh, say can you tweet?

July 3, 2018 08:22 AM
Daily Energy Market Analysis

Oh, say can you tweet, by the dawn’s early light? The global oil markets are still rolling after President Donald Trump tweeted that maybe the Saudis had agreed to increase output by as much as two million barrels to help replace Iranian supply that the Trump Administration wants to see at zero by early November.

The tweet sunk the Brent crude by more than $2 a barrel at one point as a surprise increase in OPEC supply would help satisfy a very tight European and Asian market. Yet, an increase in production would erase almost all the worlds spare capacity even though a senior U.S. State Department policy adviser said there is enough spare global oil capacity to make up for lower supply from Iran.

Yet, WTI stayed strong as Canadian supply issues and record U.S. refiner demand is keeping the U.S. market tight for the moment. Yet, the back end of the WTI curve got hit hard as more OPEC oil could slow record U.S. oil exports that hit more than three million barrels of oil a day. There is also hope that more pipeline capacity, later in the year, can free up some Permian shale oil that is getting stymied by logistical and constraint issues. The Trump administration will consider requests for waivers from economic sanctions against Iran on a "case-by-case" basis, a senior State Department official said Monday.

There was also some concern with weak manufacturing data out of China as it appears that trade war fears are causing panic in the Chinese sector. Yet, China overnight vowed to bring stability back to the markets and intervened in its currency. That brought the backend of the U.S. WTI curve back up on oil and is causing a fireworks display of market volatility. Add to that Libya’s National Oil Corp. declared force majeure on another two oil ports, removing thousands more barrels from the market. 

This comes as U.S. driver’s declare their energy independence and AAA says that about 47 million people are expected to travel by air, rail or road. Still, the gasoline crack fell hard on falling Brent Prices as well as the fact that gas demand may have peaked for the season. Still despite the odds for a correction, there is still significant upside risk. Risk that is becoming more apparent to even those who were very bearish.    

When, during human trading events, it becomes necessary for one market to dissolve the fundamental bonds, that have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the market, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Supply and Demand and of Nature's God entitle them, with decent respect to the opinions of the buyers and the sellers requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to admit that we have a fair price for oil. We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all traders are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Profits. That to secure these rights, the markets are instituted among men and women deriving their just powers from the consent of the hedgers and the speculators. That whenever any form of long or short position becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the position holders to alter or to abolish said position and buy or sell it, and to institute new position, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its portfolio in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to affect their Safety and Happiness and a road to energy Independence.

About the Author

Phil Flynn is a senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. Phil is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.