Major Market Ranges & Bull Horn Predictions for the Week of July 2

The coming week (July 1-5) should consolidate in about half of the symbols I track., but some inside-pivots breakouts show as setups in the charts. The S&P 500, yen, Eurodollar (slightly-higher pivots) and gold have trending weekly pivots for next week, meaning conditions are right for fewer directional turns and twists in these and wide-ranges are likely. Nasdaq futures appear to have an extreme valuation candle rally setup on daily chart and a simultaneous extreme-valuation sell candle on the monthly charts. If the short-term bull story dominates, then the Indices breakout higher next week. If the Bonds rally on the monthly chart candlestick patterns, then index rallies are short-term.

My range projections are less accurate for these symbols into next week, as they are likely to ignore reversal signals and not hit one side of my range projections. The Yen and Eurodollar (bullish technical monthly & daily charts) have next week’s pivots overlapping/inside of this week’s, meaning a pivot breakout is forthcoming, although I can’t guarantee when. Soybeans have inside weekly pivots for next week, slightly down compared to this week alongside inverted hammers on a daily chart. All of my tracked symbols are in neutral-narrow ranges, and no clear Iron Condor trade exists. Gold and the Yen may reverse up off lows, but a trader would fight trending, unidirectional pivots and range break setups to play a reversal trade, unless waiting until trendline violations/volume or candlestick patterns on many time frames, showing trader activity toward that goal.

Similarly, crude oil has monthly pivots in the inside/overlap state for multi-month breakouts or breakdowns but has dampening sideways pivot heights and wide-ranges that should elicit sideways action; however, it is crude in its naturally-unbridled volatility- even if my mathematic projections hint at sideways pricing! Since the 4-hour chart shows extreme reversals in Crude oil downwards in this condition set, the short call spread would be as close to shorting the bull candles as one would consider getting, and only due to the down-up-down wave elements in some momentum studies. Otherwise, oil is continuing the weekly bull engulf breakout higher that is now a monthly chart engulf candle, albeit in/against overbought, bearish Fisher conditions! Soybeans have inside weekly pivots but with sideways heights, also opposing extreme blowouts, although inside pivots can outweigh the pivot height predictions for sideways actions. 

Regarding this week’s forecast ending June 29, most markets exhibited wide-range prices moves as predicted. The bullish symbols were crude oil, the yen and eurodollar, with the currencies reversing off Monday highs to make lows. The trending prediction worked, because few turns occurred in most symbols. Sadly, I was wrong that the highs would precede the S&P 500 lows for this week. The Eurodollar short put spread would have worked, as of midmorning Friday, June 29, with price near last Friday’s close. The gold long trade idea under 1267 would have failed. The Crude Oil Monthly Options bull trade spreads would have worked, following the weekly chart bull engulf candle on a moving average as signals, as would have the Soybeans Iron Condor. My Bitcoin directional guess was wrong. My range numbers provided traders general ideas of where weekly reversals might occur. 


Predicted Ranges for  the week of July 2: Caution: Less Accurate Due to Trending

S&P 500

High: 2758/Low: 2722   

Japanese Yen

High: 9132/Low: 9040            

Eurodollar

High: 1.1800/Low: 1.165

Gold

High: $1,256/Low: $1,242

Crude oil

High: $75.51/ Low: $72.24           

Soybeans

High: $9.00/Low: $8.63

Bitcoin (XBT)

High: $6,300/Low: $5,700 


Note: The technical format change offers numbers likely to be hit/exceeded versus zones.       


Past Week’s Projected & Actual Range (As of Friday morning on June 29)

S&P 500

High: 2782/Low: 2735; Actual 2758-2693

Japanese yen

High:9213/Low: 9106; Actual 9198-9072     

Euro

High:1.1815/Low: 1.1660; Actual 1.179-1.159

Gold

High: $1,284/Low: $1,266; Actual $1,274-$1,249

Crude oil

High: $69.38/ Low: $66.84; Actual  $74.37-$67.72

Soybeans

High: $9.15/Low: $8.74; Actual $8.99-$8.62

Bitcoin (XTB)

High: $6,600/Low: $6,120 ; Actual: $6,345-$5,755



This monthly crude oil chart illustrates a bull engulfing candle as it progressed through ascending time frames (weekly to monthly chart) in opposition to overbought Fisher understudy conditions showing fast Fisher negative divergence after the bearish inverted red hammer in the prior month. It may build a down-up-down pattern next month, if July is a bear month, and that would proceed bearishly into Aug.-Sep. Also, please note the yellow-green lines about to crossover, as this is the 20/50-Moving Averages’ Crossover- a bull signal, a countertrade signal after initial bounce, and a multi-month trend situation. Source for all charts: Think or Swim

 


Above Chart: Eurodollar showing inside pivots (blue/pink dotted lines are next week’s pivots) overlapping, slightly higher than this week’s, forming the breakout setup. 


Above Chart: 10-Year Notes’ extreme reversal candle on monthly chart with only one momentum arrow up (two required to be an official trade call of mine), and Nasdaq futures are an inverse pattern to this, possibly leading indices lower in next 3 months. Potential Trade: Long S&P or Nasdaq futures options into next week but employ bearish spreads for 2-3 months after any rally points are hit. Or, watch 120’230 on the 10-Year Notes Futures in case of a bounce. 

 


Above Chart: Nasdaq Monthly Chart’s extreme valuation candle outside narrowed Bollinger bands and a green inverted hammer with negative divergence in Fisher study underneath (price in candles makes higher highs, yet Fisher makes lower lows- why? Is it a false, illegitimate up move while bonds/notes are setting the same trade up in reverse?). What kind of news or event could spark a monthly chart trade? Note the spread between fast-slow Fisher lines that supports another up move in the Nasdaq with both a blue and white up arrow per line. What if I’m partially wrong in my interpretations/views of these charts, but the technical are right and bond/indices’ markets chop sideways for two to three months? Then, short call spreads or put spreads are one way to win in that chart buildout. If I am totally misreading these charts on an index going down, then defined-risk option spreads limit exposure to futures contracts.

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines.