The coming week (June 25-29) should continue the minimally reversing, trending markets moves, but with the addition of rowdy bullhorns in several symbols. The only potential mathematic exceptions are crude oil, soybeans and bitcoin.
Soybeans still have trending monthly pivots working against my trade idea about a long reversal off red-hammer lows using an Iron Condor. Crude Oil is already in a bullish move, as evidenced by the Weekly chart’s bull engulfing candle on the 20-Moving Average and against next week’s sideways pivot/range math. The S&P 500, yen, Eurodollar and gold are all in strongly trending, steamroller pivots mode again for next week.
Specific-Symbol Technical Opinions
S&P 500 futures have a trendy narrow range on 3 frames, throwing traders a 3-day chart Doji and a daily chart bear engulf Thursday on volume surge. Conversely, VIX futures have an Extreme Value Reversal candle over Daily Chart Bollinger Bands for a volatility drop, and both stories can’t be simultaneously true. So, one could short VX futures if any momentum studies appear supportive and long the S&P 500 via a short put spread or out-of-the-money long call spread above. Reason: Friday lunch Tick strength/accumulation shows buying may occur before bears come.
The Yen also has trendy narrow ranges as well and possible bullishness on the Daily Chart with 20-,50-Moving Average breakout formations at the Monthly Median Pivot. Not a clear long.
The Eurodollar, trendy and narrow ranged, has a Monthly Doji candle on the 20&50-Moving Averages alongside weekly/three-day chart hammers. The daily chart shows opposing tails, though, so a short put spread with strikes under current price, if bullish, is a way to long with wiggle room.
Gold’s trendy pivots in narrow-range breakout setup accompany a red hammer under Bollinger Bands, but in trending pivots less likely to reverse sharply anywhere. So, try a long under 1267 (derived from halfway point down the red candle’s tail as an estimate of fair value longs).
Crude oil has both narrow and wide ranges in sideways pivots for next week and this month, but the large bull engulf weekly chart candle means an Iron Condor might not surround the range, and it is too late to play weeklys on the bull move, but monthly options short put spread 68 strike could work or long call 70-evens.
Soybeans have mostly wide ranges with one-time frame’s narrow range and a red hammer 876-885 long price (halfway down its tail) sitting under the Boll Bands ( 915 is my overhead target if trading an Iron Condor or outright long).
Bitcoin should be avoided but does have a three-day chart narrow range; neutral-bullish otherwise as a guess.
Regarding this week’s forecast ending June 22, about half of my range extrema numbers were hit or exceeded, while most of the remaining numbers were very close to actual extremes. My numbers provided traders general ideas of where weekly reversals might occur. My Iron Condor idea for crude might have worked for the volatility crush, and the inside pivots (slightly higher) I noted on Friday did give an indication of the breakout direction higher this week. My soybeans Iron Condor idea could have worked if put spread strikes were low, but avoidance due to trending monthly pivots would have been safer--same for this week should anyone try that trade for next week. I was wrong about the long S&P 500 trade, and advised not throwing away money one might ever need on it.
Predicted Ranges for the Week of June 25: Caution, less accurate due to trending
High: 2782/Low: 2735
High: 9213/Low: 9106
High: $69.38/ Low:$66.84
High: $6,600/Low: $6,120
Note: The technical format change offers numbers likely to be hit/exceeded versus zones.
Actual Ranges for the Week of June 18
High:2810/Low: 2757 Actual 2786-2735
High: 9143/Low: 9068, Actual 9186-9082
High:1.191/Low: 1.153, Actual 1.174-1.158
High:$1,297/ Low: $1,272, Actual $1,286-$1,262
High: $67.38/ Low: $64.61, Actual $68.18-$63.40
High: $9.35/Low: $8.97, Actual $9.14-$8.41
High: $7,100/Low: $6,020, Actual: $6,850-$6,055