The coming week (June 18-22) should continue the trend of trending symbols. The only potential exceptions are gold and soybeans whose weekly pivots are sideways for reversal scalpers and who already made a wide-range move likely to consolidate sideways. However, both gold and beans have trending monthly pivots--a wild card working against my Iron Condor favorite trade.
Gold is on the monthly 20-moving average, weekly 80-moving average and daily 500-moving average and monthly Camarilla Pivot support. But don’t sell an Iron Condor or short put spread until you see some reversal candles and trendlines breaking if you must fight monthly trending pivots at all with a reversal trade catching a falling safe. Repeating the soybeans failed Iron Condor may be better, as the monthly pivots are less trending, and a hammer-ish candle exists on the daily and three-day charts under a monthly S4 Floor Pivot (rare event price point). Multi-time frame volume profile analysis shows both gold and soybeans under Value Areas, with soybeans farther below and more in need for snapping back up, while gold is nearer fair valuation and closer to volume supports.
If you’re itchin’ for a trade with money that you don’t need just burning a hole in your pocket, go bullish long the S&P 500 short-term, short put spreads! The cash index is 2772 as I write this at noon Friday flashing both a 20-point big rally signal and a drop signal, so a short put spread makes sense for a bounce preceding a possible drop.
Crude oil is a mystery because it has sideways pivots for the coming week and half of its time frames show a wide-range move occurred, supportive of sideways action and an Iron Condor. I have to remove my favorite-trade bias, though, because the Inside Pivots Breakout Setup in weekly pivots on Crude with a slightly-higher median pivot may overpower all sideways action for a surprise anyone’s guess breakout (monthly chart bearish, weekly chart support on the 20-moving average and worthless weekly Camarilla Pivots and an unsupportive monthly 50-moving average). Another technical curiosity is the fact the Eurodollar sits still on the monthly 20- & 50-moving averages as they ponder crossing over each other in a bullish signal.
Regarding this week’s forecast ending June 15 for “freight train-steamroller trending” and wide ranges relative as always to Fri. close, gold went down 1.8%, the S&P 500 went under Friday’s close, the yen went down 1% (against my direction), the Euro fell 1.7%, crude oil rose 2.5% and fell about as much under Friday close, and Bitcoin dropped 19%. I advised bitcoin avoidance until an index for cryptocurrencies is created, because of the narrow ranges it had and unpredictability--any chart shows I’m right about that conservative approach, although I love trying to predict it. The soybeans Iron Condor trade would have likely lost, and I hope the S&P 500 short positions overpowered bean losses for any traders using my calculations/predictions in trading. “I sound like those guys that toll the “big crash” date forward in every newsletter they write until they are right. It is next week--not a big crash, though!” The preceding sentence summed this week up, as did my technical assessment for a snap down and back up into perceived fair valuation--it enthusiastically failed to take out Thu.-Fri. lows. Today, Friday, June 15, I’m bullish >10 pts. From the 70s before another drop.
Predicted Ranges for the week of June 18
High: 9143/Low: 9068
Note: The technical format change offers numbers likely to be hit/exceeded versus zones.
Projected & actual ranges for the week of June 11
High:2799/Low2734, Actual 2796-2765
High:9190/Low: 9054, Actual 9153-9024
High:1.187/Low: 1.169, Actual 1.185-1.156
High:$1,315/Low:$1,297, Actual $1,313-$1,277
High:$67.04/ Low:$64.41, Actual $67.16-$64.58
High:$10.13/Low: $9.60, Actual $9.72-$9.03
High:$8,100/Low:$7,375, Actual: $6,910-$6,135