USD/JPY trading in a big triangle

On the daily chart of the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) currency pair, we see price trading in a bigger, complex and slow corrective pattern, which is in Elliott wave theory known as a triangle. A triangle has five waves, and each of the five waves has three minor legs, however, one wave in a triangle can always become more complex (wave E, for example, can be a triangle itself within a bigger triangle).

That said, currently, we see price trading in final stages of this bigger corrective pattern, specifically in wave E that can look for possible support around the 107.00/106.00 region. Also, a triangle is a continuation pattern, meaning once it fully unfolds a new leg in the direction of the trend can show up. In our case, this means to the upside.


USD/JPY, daily

 

Now, switching to the 4-hour chart; here we see a significant evidence that can suggest a top in place for wave D and a new bearish reversal to be in progress. We are talking about the recent break below the trend line, connected from March lows, which in Elliott wave theory can suggest more weakness. Also, a drop in five waves, in impulsive fashion from the highs can suggest a reversal.


USD/JPY, 4-hour

About the Author

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. He also is founder of forex services on www.ew-forecast.com.