The coming week (May 29-June 1) will trend a bit more and in more symbols than this closing week (May 25), according to pivot math. A few narrow-range breakout setups exist, and gold already started its wide-range upturn. Crude oil has a pivots-based breakout setup on weekly pivots, a weekly chart bearish inverted hammer sell signal as of Thursday night, and three-day chart narrow-range breakout math--I’ve been driving my white prius more than my black SUV this week with gas pump prices approaching $3 per gallon!
It even got to a point that I put $30 in the Prius at the Nashville airport (where it’s cheaper) and did food deliveries on open apps/closed apps with the kids each time I needed gas money for the SUV! Chartists might also glance at the soybeans’ daily chart inverted hammer bearish sell signal today (Thursday). The S&P 500 has trending pivots and a weekly-chart range constriction for a wide three-week move (up, in my opinion that is merely that but is based on current weekly-chart candlestick).
Regarding this week’s forecast ending May 25, almost all predictions worked, including that the S&P 500 would make weekly highs first, except my directional guess for the Bitcoin pivots-based breakout was wrong. It did make a wide-range move, and I wish I had a way to forecast in advance if it would have been enough for a strangle or straddle play!
Quick technical assessments/trades for the week of May 28
S&P500 Is in weekly-chart narrow range compression with next week’s pivots moderately trending. Wide move possible for three weeks, few reversals. Directional guess: 3-weeks up with a surprise throwback down around next Thu. from three-day chart range compression/down signals.
Yen Going up to .9275, the Sept. 4 swing high and Weekly 20-Moving Average. Has moderately-trending pivots into next week with a wide-range already occurring now.
Eurodollar It is not mirroring the Yen this week and the 1.160 Monthly 50-Moving Average below may be a target in trending pivots. Giving the Euro short trade the article title, “Trade the of the Year”, I thought it was over weeks ago with targets hit, but it dropped more.
Gold It has trending pivots and a slight inside pivots breakout setup with lower pivots for next week- not a breakdown guarantee, especially with daily chart hammers on recent lows. Monthly inverted hammer sell has understudies supporting I more than the countertrend bounce has- measure the tail lengths and candle closing prices yourself to see my basis for this claim.
Crude oil – Sideways pivots should get beat by inside breakout pivots, the weekly 500-Moving Average, with the tail of an inverted sell hammer on it and Monthly 80-Moving Average are giving resistance. “Check some short call spreads if signs of reversals emerge” (ditto last week).
Soybeans Bulls see the 20-50-Moving Averages almost crossing over upwards with two bull hammers chillin’ & invitin’ investor-class folks. The daily sell signal into Tues. means one can short a weeklys call spread Fri. May 25 or buy a put without keeping it over 3 trading days.
Bitcoin -Some technicals are bullish for next week, making this week 4 that I am wrong writing this, so I’ll say “more downside to come” to enable it to go up and keep proving me wrong. Getting tired of this symbol, especially with no options or way to play it under $500.00
Predicted Ranges for the week ending May 25
High: 9212/Low: 9087
High: 1.182/Low: 1.165
High:$1,310/ Low: $1,290
High: $71.46/ Low: $69.49
High: $10.41/Low: $10.19
Note: Due to a technical format change to reporting single numbers for projected highs/lows, even if prices surpass my extrema, actual ranges are not meaningful for this closing week. I apologize for any confusion or calculation errors during this transition, as I strive to write practical, usable articles. And thanks for using my work with your own market study!
The chart above is the May 15 after or follow-up four-hour chart to prior week’s May 11 VX long extreme valuation reversal signal shown in last week’s report(May 11), as a Monday hammer signal doublet on the same time frame led price directly to my targets. Chart is reprinted below as an example of a signal, preceding a VX rally.
The above chart of VX or VIX futures exhibits an Extreme Reversal candlestick in a low area on a 4-Hour chart with a bounce target near 14.50, or the lower half of the narrowed Bollinger Bands. A momentum understudy also gives a nod with a supportive up arrow. This is another reason I expect an S&P throwback from out of nowhere and a potential buying opportunity. (May 15 note: This was May 11 report chart that became the above chart after price buildout; the throwback Tues. led to a sharp reversal buying opportunity into Wed. May 16 that I predicted back on Friday). Source: Think or Swim
This chart shows the yen, daily using my Reversal/Congestion Grid studies. Note the left chart’s ADX-DMI positive divergence of higher lows against price’s lower lows, also found in the MACD and CCI, and in the middle chart’s Money Flow Index, and the far right’s chart illustrating positive Chaikin Money Flow, Williams% also turning up on lows. This is why I am looking for a Wave Two bounce in both the yen and the euro (identical chart to this one). This chart is the reason/basis on which I continue last week’s wrong upside prediction for this week into next week- not because I will eventually be right, but rather because it is what the chart indicates. Source: Think or Swim
This gold chart shows a daily timeframe with positive divergences in understudies on these lows in my Reversal/Congestion grid. Because I may not be certain these are the swing lows with the $1,273 per oz. price below on a major Moving Average, I suggested the idea of an Iron Condor option spread at the 1273-1310 strike range or a short puts spread here and another below, possibly, in case we can’t catch the falling safe! Do not ride an Iron to expiration, due to the breakout pivots shown in far right chart and the Monthly Chart bear signals. Source: think or Swim