The upcoming week should offer a little something for every type of market participant from the casual to the day trader and from the weekly options spread trader to the four-week time frame! My best ideas for narrow range breakouts on trending pivots for trend-chasing traders are the S&P 500 and, possibly, crude oil and bitcoin. Other symbols are creating exciting range trades.
Regarding this week’s forecast ending May 11, the S&P 500 did give early-week sell indicators at Weekly R2 and Monthly Camarilla H3 Pivots, before my predicted drop and potential buy opportunity that happened into Wed. Regretfully, the Yen blowout was down, instead of up with four buy signal time frames on Tue., near my projected lows that were still useful for the long reversal. The Euro was identical. Gold followed its monthly chart sell candlestick lower after my 4-point blip up but has not shown much reversal rally indication. Crude stopped on highs just under my week’s range forecast with light sell signals. Soybeans stopped a penny below my week’s projected low. Bitcoin gave buy signals on multiple time frames slightly under my useful week’s low-reversal zone. The VX long signal chart I showed in last week’s report proffered a long signal Monday directly to my exit targets on Tuesday.
Quick Technical Assessments by Symbol for May 21-25(relative for Friday’s close):
S&P 500 Is in narrow range compression with next week’s pivots strongly trending. Wide move possible with few reversals. Directional Guess: Highs of the week made first, then lows.
Yen Has sideways pivots and average range, so Iron Condors/scalps/reversal trades (short put spreads placed Friday or Monday) should thrive at least for a scalp. Price on Monthly 20-Simple Moving Average and Weekly 80-Simple Moving Average, and check my reversal chart grid to see why I continue to expect a low reversal bounce for a third week.
Eurodollar It is the same sideways-pivots story as the yen. It has a bullish chart for next week; prediction continues in effect from daily charts, even though I was wrong with this last week.
Gold It has sideways-reversals in its pivots for next week and already made a wide-range low move near the Monthly 20-Simple Moving Average and Weekly 80-Simple Moving Average near $1,273. An Iron Condor could work for a three-day theta-decay/price-chop scalp (1270-1310 strike areas) or wait to try and nail the exact low reversal with a short put spread when printed.
Crude oil – Sideways pivots present with and offset/soften a narrow-range breakout setup on highs, with $73.18 per barrel, weekly 500-simple moving average resistance. The $72.83 Monthly camarilla Pivot H3 may stop it before the Weekly 500. Directional Guess: Higher-Sideways, maybe down. Check some short call spreads if signs of reversals emerge.
Soybeans Sliding on the Monthly 50 & 20-moving averages, sideways pivots for next week couple with a normal current range. I am looking for reversal signs upward.
Bitcoin Narrow ranges and mildly-trending pivots could spark a wide-range move in this one. Monthly Inside Pivots Breakouts have been there for a while, and I somewhat think upside is the direction, at least for next week to trade over Friday’s close(this was what said last week and it was barely true for this week; it is my same statement for next week. I wish there were a $200.00 options spread to play it for one direction lower-risk style!)
Next Week’s (Ending May 25) Predicted Ranges:
High: $73.60-$72.35/ Low: $69.60-$68.31
High: $10.45-$10.36/Low: $10.07-$10.02
Projected & actual ranges for thee week ending May 18 (as of May 17, 2 p.m. Central)
High:2764- 2747/Low2679-2659; Actual 2741-2700
High:9258-9208/Low: 9112-9061, Actual 9176-9024
High:1.2144-1.2070/Low: 1.1900-1.1840; Actual 1.202-1.179
High:$1,339-$1,329/Low:$1,317-$1,306; Actual $1,322-$1,284
High: $73.60-$72.35/ Low: $69.60-$68.31; Actual $72.30-$70.26
High: $10.45-$10.36/; Low: $10.07-$10.02
Low: $8,740-$8,630 ; Actual: $8,860-$7,940
This chart shows the May 15 “after” or follow-up 4-hour chart to prior week’s May 11 VX long extreme valuation reversal signal shown in last week’s report (May 11), as a Monday hammer signal doublet on the same time frame led price directly to my targets. Chart is reprinted below as an example of a signal, preceding a VX rally.
The above chart of VX or VIX futures exhibits an Extreme Reversal candlestick in a low area on a 4-Hour chart with a bounce target near 14.50, or the lower half of the narrowed Bollinger Bands. A momentum understudy also gives a nod with a supportive up arrow. This is another reason I expect an S&P throwback from out of nowhere and a potential buying opportunity. ((MAY 15 NOTE: This was May 11 report chart that became the above chart after price buildout; the throwback Tues. led to a sharp reversal buying opportunity into Wed. May 16 that I predicted back on Friday)) Source: Think or Swim
Chart Above: Yen, daily chart in my Reversal/Congestion Grid of studies. Note the left chart’s ADX-DMI positive divergence of higher lows against price’s lower lows, also found in the MACD and CCI, and in the middle chart’s Money Flow Index, and the far right’s chart illustrating positive Chaikin Money Flow, Williams% also turning up on lows. This is why I am looking for a Wave Two bounce in both the Yen and the Euro (identical chart to this one). This chart is the reason/basis on which I continue last week’s wrong upside prediction for this week into next week- not because I will eventually be right, but rather because it is what the chart indicates. Source: Think or Swim
Chart Above: Gold daily time frame with positive divergences in understudies on these lows in my Reversal/Congestion grid. Because I may not be certain these are the swing lows with the $1,273 price below on a major Moving Average, I suggested the idea of an Iron Condor option spread at the 1273-1310 strike range or a short puts spread here and another below, possibly, in case we can’t catch the falling safe! Do not ride an Iron to expiration, due to the breakout pivots shown in the far right chart and the Monthly Chart bear signals. Source: think or Swim