E-mini S&P 500 (June)
Last week’s close (Friday, May 11): Settled at 2729.50, up 10.75 on Friday and up 66.50 on the week
Fundamentals: Equity markets finished a strong week on firm footing Friday after President Trump’s speech on drug prices. There was some de-risking ahead of the speech as the S&P 500 retested the overnight low and traded about 0.5% from the session high on fears the speech would attack the biotech and healthcare industries. Things picked up where they left off Sunday night. A tweet from President Trump added to current momentum, he and President Xi Jinping of China, “are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!” China announced today that top aides will travel to the U.S on Tuesday to meet with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Price action traded to a high of 2741, the highest since March 21st, before backing off around midnight. On Sunday’s Tradable Events this Week we discussed how Retail becomes a major focus and the heavy dose of central bank talk that kicks things off. There is no major economic releases this morning.
Technicals: Overnight price action traded just shy of major three-star resistance at... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Crude oil (June)
Last week’s close: Settled at 70.70, down 0.66 on Friday but up 0.98 on the week
Fundamentals: Crude oil’s rise after Trump’s announcement on the Iran Deal began to stall on Friday. Despite heightened geopolitical tensions with Iran on all fronts, the market has leveled out. Abiding by the requests from the U.S. in leaving the deal will remove Iranian supply from the market, however, OPEC said it has the spare capacity offset such. Furthermore, Europe and Russia are expected to work diligently to renegotiate and restore some or all the deal. Price action began to stall on Friday morning on comments from Russia on such. OPEC released their Monthly Report this morning and output rose 12,000 bpd in April, mainly because of an increase of 47,000 bpd from Saudi Arabia. Also, global Oil demand for 2018 was revised slightly higher. Today will be headline driven and we now look to the IEA Monthly Report Wednesday as inventories also come into the picture.
Technicals: Price action stalled Friday morning and the move below 71.17-71.36, as described here began to neutralize the tape; we did not get the friendly Friday push. With Crude Oil trading within 50 cents of our 72.35 target and then retreating, we are now ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last week’s close: Settled at 1320.7, down 1.6 on Friday and up 6.0 on the week
Fundamentals: Gold moved very well early Friday but stalled shy of major three-star resistance. The Dollar is lower this morning but has not lifted the metal. There seems to be a push and pull occurring as the week gets underway; comments from ECB official Villeroy that they are still on the path to end QE this year and hike shortly thereafter spiked the Euro, however, China and U.S trade relations have seemingly taken a turn for the better following President Trump’s tweet on Chinese phone company ZTE. The U.S and China are set to meet in Washington on Tuesday. In Sunday’sTradable Events this Week, we detailed the Dollar Index trade and the heavy slate of central bank speak and data to start the week.
Technicals: Gold has been extremely constructive over the intermediate and long-term, however, this near-term bounce and failure at major three-star resistance becomes ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Natural gas (June
Last week’s close: Settled at 2.806, down 0.008 on Friday and up 0.095 on the week
Fundamentals: The market remains in a consolidation pattern as traders look to the next couple weeks as a critical time to build storage. According to EIA estimates, stocks are 863 bcf less than last year at this time and 520 bcf below the five-year average. This is bullish, but price action is just unable to seem convinced. We do anticipate higher than average cooling days in the back half of June and through July; if all if this is the case, than we should anticipate seeing $3+ Natural Gas in weeks to come.
Technicals: Price action cannot breakout above major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
10-year Treasuries (June)
Last week’s close: Settled at 119’13, down 0’005 on Friday and down 0’095 on the week
Fundamentals: The yield failed to hold 3% last week but is attempting another push today as equity markets are risk-on and U.S and China trade relations have seemingly taken a positive turn. The failure to hold 3% was largely because of a softer than expected read on CPI while the Core MoM component was arguably weak, coming in at the lowest level since November. On Sunday’sTradable Events this Week, we discuss the heavy dose of central bank speakers and data that kicks the week off. Retail Sales and TIC will be critical tomorrow.
Technicals: The wide ranging major four-star support at.... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.