It is the season for trend and breakout traders, according to my chart range statistics, aggregate statistics, and pivots. I do love sideways markets like I love Nashville biscuits with slow-pouring molasses & butter. Trying to pinpoint range reversals is a thrill. However, these breakout markets, at this moment wrecking my range-prediction precision, are teaching me honesty, flexibility, and caring service to others, so I am changing my format temporarily to benefit readers/traders who thrive with these types of potential trade setups and who may want to know in advance and plan for what might happen next week on Friday, according to my hand calculations with no accuracy guarantees.
Regarding this week’s forecast ending May 11, the yen long is only now appearing in my charts, although my gold and S&P bounces occurred. I apologize profusely for my too-low S&P high numbers into this week, even though I wrote “outright bullish options” in words. Crude did a nice daily-chart sell signal, as predicted, but one would have had to exit fast for profits midweek.
Quick Technical Summaries by Symbol for May 14-18
The S&P 500 is having sideways pivots for next week, the monthly trending pivots and slightly narrowed ranges support further up moves. See the charts below for why the throwback is the long moment.
Yen Here go some exciting, very-tight weekly pivots in an inside breakout setup position (as of Thu. eve.) with a three-day chart doji hammers on the daily 200-moving average. Blowout up?
The Eurodollar has a weekly bullish red hammer on the 50-Moving Average as of tonight. Trending pivots on next week.
Gold, monthly and weekly, inside breakouts complement each other here. A hammer series co-occurs on the three-day and daily charts. Warning: monthly chart’s two inverted hammers precede May’s so-far bull hammer (Wave 2 bounce to fuel Wave 3 down?). If long, maybe exit ½?
Crude oil Sideways weekly/monthly pivots present with wide-range high prices, divergent. The 500-Moving Average at $73.18 per barrel may be resistance. Otherwise, no opinion except ranged.
Soybeans Sliding on the Weekly 20-moving average, beans have a hammer on the Monthly 20&50-Moving Averages simultaneously (high probability long win on 3-5 months). Options!
Bitcoin Monthly/weekly Inside Pivots Breakouts have been there for a wide move. Combined with daily/weekly chart narrowed ranges and surprise breakout comes forth soon.
Next Week’s (Ending May 18) Predicted Ranges:
High: 2764- 274/Low: 2679-2659
High: 9258-9208/Low: 9112-9061
Projected & actual ranges for the week ending 5/11 (as of May 10, 2:00 p.m. Central)
High:2673- 2660/Low2616-2598 Actual 2725-2652
High:9304-9257/Low: 9160-9115 Actual 9219-9110
The euro the-day chart is showing an Extreme Value Candlestick very much below the narrowed Bollinger Bands and with some momentum study up arrows underneath. My original low targets in red lines I drew back a few months ago may be bounce targets at this point from a possible Wave Two Bounce. This was a cascade down move, and some scalpers trade the green candle after this series on intraday charts. Let’s see if any trade this chart! Source for all charts: ThinkorSwim
The above chart shows 5-minute $TICK and an Understudy of Tick-Behind-Price during Thursday, May 10 lunch. If you can accept that this may be predictive, there is a down-up-down wave embedded within the price graph and lower lows in both pricing and subgraph understudies. If TICK can’t support price during lunchtime, then a low side trade may be brewing or a buy-low opportunity.
The above chart of VX or VIX futures exhibits an Extreme Reversal candlestick in a low area on a 4-Hour chart with a bounce target near 14.50, or the lower half of the narrowed Bollinger Bands. A momentum understudy also gives a nod with a supportive up arrow. This is another reason I expect an S&P throwback from out of nowhere and a potential buying opportunity.