S&P 500 weekly lows are in: How many ways to play it?

March 20, 2018 08:36 AM

Iron Condor or long-It? First of all, I believe the weekly lows in the S&P 500 are in because of my pre-calculated weekly ranges in my regular article at approximately 2800-2700, rounded here to make the Iron Condor math easy- the 50% point is 2750. The lows yesterday were so strongly rejected from the monthly pivot, weekly 20- and 80-simple moving averages and weekly Camarilla L3 low reversal pivots and being on my projected ranges in a sideways weekly pivots week that I can assert that the lows are in. Transient intraday tests I monitor, such as $TICK show positively divergent higher lows against lower prices, further providing evidence of a weekly low reversal.

If one believes the lows are in this was an out-of-character down-spike yesterday (due to sideways pivot math for this week calculated in advance in my prior article), then a long trade could be placed. An outright long position is a possibility, but I prefer weekly-expiration option spreads. For example, a short put spread in week 4, expiring Friday at the 2730/2725 strikes would give over 40% premium collection (as of this pre-market writing) and ask the market to stay above this level and approach a 2750-2750 fair value to win.

An out-of-the-money 2760, 2780, 2780 strike zone long call spread or straight long call would be inexpensive as well. If one likes the idea of a three-way winning trade that benefits from volatility collapse, time decay as price hovers over 2725, and moderate price cooperation over 2725 and near 2750-70 fair value Iron Condor midpoint (sweet spot of the trade), then the 2780/2775 call spread strikes and 2725/2720 put spread strikes comprise a nice short Iron Condor with over 50% premium (as of pre-market writing). An Iron Condor allows a trader to be a somewhat correct about identifying a range within a range, and it can be skewed to be bullish, as this one would be, rather than Delta 15 strikes equidistant from current price as the call spread/put spread numbers.

Alternately, we can just watch it and see how Friday closes to see if these were truly the weekly lows.  

About the Author

Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines. His study of financial markets led to his beliefs that investors can be self-directed and that market moves could be predicted using a variety of technical indicators and mathematics. His website is www.trevorsmithfnp.com. @TrevorSmithCTA