Mid-day look at gold, crude and Treasuries

March 19, 2018 02:05 PM

Gold Apr Contract ( jUN ,  ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was retraced Monday to test the $1,319.00 per ounce signal that had triggered last week to resume the decline. Although the structure containing the 1,305.00 gap back down to the lows was tested, the gap itself wasn't yet filled, which is likelier before a rally can develop -- so long as bounces hold 1,319.00. And its break would target 1,291.50.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up a little Monday on news of a Brexit breakthrough still stopped short of the 1.2330 sell signal that was triggered last week, and whose recovery would suggest another bounce underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday's bounce corrected Friday's portion of the drop under $16.40 per ounce, and should be sufficient for the decline to resume if that's its intent, before actually recovering 16.40.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight lows were already testing downtrending support at 144-00 before Monday's open. Gapping down to the trendline held its test down to 143-27 and quickly reversed up nearly 1 point to probe positive territory. Last week's confirmed breakout still requires at least one more higher close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Opening back under 62.25 Monday soon collapsed to "lower prior highs" at $61.35 per barrel, which had been the bounce limit. It was also a test of 51.50 whose break through the close would have been a sell signal, but it was recovered to test 62.25 as resistance into the afternoon.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not until after Monday's open did price spike through 2.70, presumably on its way to fulfilling the minimum lower objective at 2.62. The delayed start reflects an ever-present ineffectual optimism that -- from a contrarian perspective -- can help to push even lower.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.