Grains round-up: Corn, wheat & soybean

Corn (May)

Yesterday’s Close (Tuesday, March 6):  May corn finished the day up 2 ½ cents, trading in a range of 3 ½ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 6,500 contracts.

Fundamentals:  Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 947,642 metric tons, this was below the expected range from 1,100,000-1,400,000 metric tons; last weeks came in at 1,305,853 metric tons.  Argentina continues to be the headline story as dry weather could pose a risk to production.  Brazils safrinha corn planting is estimated to be 63% complete, this lags last years pace which was 75% for the same time.  Market participants will start turning attention towards Thursdays WASDE report where we will get some new news that doesn’t revolve around the weather.

Technicals:  The market is firm to start the week after holding technical support on Friday's session.  That pocket continues to come in from 379-382 ¾.  This pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement as well as the 200-day moving average, both of which represented previous resistance.  On the resistance side of things, we do not see a whole lot in the way.

Soybeans (May)

Yesterday’s Close:  May soybean futures closed 6 ¾ cents higher, trading in a range of 12 ¾ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 6,000 contracts.

Fundamentals:  Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 990,113 metric tons, this was towards the top end of the expected range from 600,000-1,000,000 metric tons; last weeks came in at 761,961 metric tons.  We are aware of the broken record, but it is what it is, weather continues to be the headline factor.  Thankfully we do have a WASDE report on Thursday, it will be nice to get actual new news on the wires; we will have estimates out tomorrow morning.

Technicals:  Soybeans were choppy yesterday but managed to close towards the high end of the day's range.  The inability to see a clear-cut rejection from the 1082 ½ highs at the end of the week should be viewed as a caution flag for the bears.  The market is in “overbought” territory but that is not enough of a reason to short.  If you’ve ever traded beans or wheat before, you know that the RSI can stay elevated for an extended period of time.  A break above technical resistance opens the door for another leg higher.

Wheat (May)

Yesterday’s Close:  May wheat futures finished up 8 cents, trading in a range of 15 cents on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 5,000 contracts on the session.

Fundamentals:  Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 400,937 metric tons, this was a hair above the top end of the expected range which came in from 200,000-400,000 metric tons; last weeks came in at 280,243 metric tons.  Dry weather through some key wheat growing areas continues to offer support to prices, forecasts are suggesting that those areas are to remain mostly dry for the next 1-2 weeks.  We will have estimates for Thursdays WASDE report in tomorrows Grain Express.

Technicals:  The market rallied off of support yesterday, trading in an inside day (trading within the previous days range).    Prices are under a little pressure higher this morning, but the bulls remain in control.  

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