Yesterday’s close (Thursday, March 2): May futures finished Wednesday's session up 5 cents, trading in a range of 7 on the day. Funds were estimated buyers of 24,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,752,996 metric tons, this was well above the expected range from 1,000,000-1,500,000 metric tons. The bulls will want to see this become a longer-term trend to keep this market grinding higher. The corn market was also helped by spillover from the strength in soybeans and wheat. We have a USDA report out next week on the March 8, we will start compiling estimates for that in the first half of next week. At the end of the month is the prospective plantings report.
Technicals: The market is in full breakout mode and it doesn’t look like much is going to stop it here in the short term. The next target for the bulls comes in at 391-¾-392-¾. The market is “overbought”, but as we mentioned on AgriTalk yesterday, the RSI can be thrown out the window in this market environment. If the market does stall out, we would see first support coming in from.
Yesterday’s close: May soybeans finished the day up 12-½ cents, trading in a range of 18 on the day. Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 16,000 contracts on the session.
Fundamentals: If you were just looking at price and not the calendar, you would probably think that we are in the middle of summer with prices trading over a dollar higher in the last month. Prices continued to surge higher yesterday and again in the overnight session. Thursday's export sales came in at 979,989 metric tons, this was above the expected range from 400,000-800,000 metric tons. Weather continues to be a key catalyst and will continue to be in the near term. Market participants will also want to be paying attention to next weeks USDA report and the acres report at the end of the month; we will start having estimates together early next week.
Technicals: In yesterday’s report and on AgriTalk After the Bell we mentioned that the breakout would likely open the door to a run towards 1080, at which point we think there would be value for shorts on the first test. The market made a high of 1082 ½ overnight, but we will want to see price confirmation through volume from the floor trade; making Thursday's trade extremely important for setting the tone in next weeks trade. If the market does indeed stall out near the 1080 level, we could see long liquidation towards.
Yesterday's close: May wheat futures finished up 23 ½ cents, trading in a range of 28-½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 15,000 contracts for the day.
Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at 236,322 metric tons, this was towards the low end of the estimated range from 200,000-600,000 metric tons. KC wheat continues to be the leader as concerns grow with regards to crop conditions in the Southern Plains. Expect the volatility to remain high for the month as the crop starts to come out of dormancy.
Technicals: In yesterday’s report we mentioned we were expecting the market to work towards 516-¾ due to some of the technical indicators we were looking at, that target was achieved for the bulls. The market has pulled back off of that level in the early morning session, but the floor trade should be more telling for price action today. The 50-day moving average did cross the 100-day moving average, this is known as a “golden cross” and is looked as a very bullish development. The RSI has pulled back to 69.12 this morning.