E-mini S&P 500 (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2784.50
Fundamentals: In a busy day, the highlight is new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s first semi-annual congressional testimony. He appears in front of the Senate Banking Committee today at 9:00 a.m. Central. His prepared remarks will be released at 7:30 a.m. Central and his outlook will be dissected in every way. While he is likely to do his best to steer the ship down its current path through the March hike and economic data released in April, questioning will certainly put this to the test. We will keep an ear to the ground on his comments on inflation, economic conditions and not only the pace in which to hike rates but his belief on such slowing a rise in inflation. Ultimately, how does this compare to his predecessor, former Fed Chair Janet Yellen. If he attempts to not rock the boat, he could come off as more dovish; a positive for the market. The S&P has posted back to back gains of 1%. Before occurring on February 9th and 12th, the previous two such occasions were the Brexit low and the February 2016 bottom. Though it may not signal a further melt-up in the next 24-48 hours, it has clearly been a very positive sign for broad market conditions in the coming days and weeks. At 7:30 a.m. Central is the release of Durable Goods, Wholesale Inventories and Goods Trade Balance data. Case Shiller is due at 8:00 a.m. Central. We will be watching the Consumer Confidence read at 9:00 very closely as this could be a good barometer for economic conditions on the heels of February’s correction; a strong read is very likely to lift price action. Later this afternoon at 1:00 p.m. Central former Fed Chair Bernanke will interview newly former Fed Chair Yellen in her first public appearance since leaving office; we would imagine that this is scripted as to not shake things up.
Technicals: Yesterday’s price action was just about everything we could have asked for. The opening bell spiked the market higher and in a similar fashion to the open Sunday night, it settled in before making a secondary push. The close was clearly out above major three-star resistance at... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Crude oil (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 63.91
Fundamentals: Crude oil is settling in just a bit after yesterday’s push higher. While bullish comments from Saudi and OPEC over the weekend got the week started off hot, a potential increase in U.S. inventories has dissipated the strength. API is due out later today and tomorrow’s official EIA read expects a build of 2.7 mb. The head of the IEA said yesterday that U.S Shale growth is “very strong” and it will overtake Russia as the number one producer. Last week’s report was not too bullish but a concoction of jawboning by OPEC and stagnant production growth in the U.S encouraged bulls to reposition. Today will also be crucial due to data and new Fed Chair Powell’s testimony; the weaker Dollar has been an underestimated catalyst supporting crude.
Technicals: Thursday was the rip your face off reversal, the last two sessions have been more of a slow grind higher. Though price action has stayed well out above our major three-star level at.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1332.8
Fundamentals: Gold failed to hold its spike higher Sunday night and price action has retreated into the middle of its five-day range ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony. His prepared remarks are due at 7:30 a.m. Central and he appears in front of the Senate Banking Committee at 9:00 a.m. This is the first of two appearances, he will be in front of the House Financial Services Company on Thursday. In an attempt to keep things in the fairway, we do see some risk to the dovish side; supportive for gold. Though this is the main event, Durable Goods, Wholesale Inventories and Goods Trade Balance is due at 7:30 a.m. Central and will play a key role in Q1 GDP. Case Shiller is due at 8:00 and a critical Consumer Confidence read on the heels of February’s market correction is at 9:00 a.m. Central. Later today we have former Fed Chair Bernanke interview former Fed Chair Yellen in her first appearance since leaving office at 1:00 p.m. Central.
Technicals: The long-term technicals remain very upbeat and gold is consolidating in a wedge pattern on the weekly chart. Price action failed to get out above first key resistance yesterday and this remains a barrier at.
Natural gas (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2.686
Fundamentals: The market is in a consolidation phase as both camps see little to no edge at the moment. Weather patterns are more moderate in the near-term, however, uncertainty still clouds the next three weeks. Price action will be important to watch today as we could see further repositioning as the March contract has now expired; in other words, we expect to see volatility through the end of the month which then brings inventories on March 1.
Technicals: We still see long-term value at these levels, however, price action failed to get out above first key resistance yesterday at.
10-year Treasuries (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 120’265
Fundamentals: Today is a crucial session with new Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony at 9:00 a.m. Central. His prepared remarks are due at 7:30 a.m. Central along with the release of Durable Goods, Wholesale Inventories and Goods Trade Balance data. As stated above, it is most likely that he tries his best to keep remarks in the fairway as he gets his sea legs. Ultimately, we do not imagine that he wants to disrupt market conditions until he has a better grasp on the first quarter and after the March hike in April. This could lead to him coming off more dovish and supportive to the Treasury complex. Case Shiller data is due at 8:00 am CT and a critical Consumer Confidence read on the heels of the February market correction is due at 9:00.
Technicals: Price action traded to a high yesterday of 121’04 and failed squarely at our major three-star resistance level. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.