Session close (Monday, Feb. 26): Settled near 1.23285
Fundamentals: ECB President Mario Draghi subtly did some of his best work to keep the Euro rangebound while also keeping market expectations at current levels. He simply said that slack in the Eurozone economy might be bigger than initially thought. He followed this by saying they expect inflation to rise gradually but supported by easing measures. The Euro finished marginally green, seeing support from a very poor read on U.S New Home Sales and comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard who said if the Fed continues to hike, the result could be policy that is too tight. Fed Governor Quarles stayed the course with the three rate-hike rhetoric this afternoon.
Today is Jerome Powell’s first of two congressional testimonies and the new Fed Chair is likely to not deviate much from the recent game plan. However, in doing so he might come off as more dovish. First, we have German Bundesbank President Weidmann who some see as the front-runner to replace Draghi speaking at 4:00 am CT along with Eurozone Business Climate data and Consumer Expectations. German CPI data is due at 7:00 am CT. Around the same time that Powell begins at 7:30, U.S Durable Goods data is due. S&P Case Shiller is at 8:00 and a key Consumer Confidence read is at 9:00 am CT.
Technicals: Price action has stayed rangebound as traders await to hear new Fed Chair Powell steer the ship tomorrow. First key resistance at... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Session close: Settled near .9365
Fundamentals: The Japanese yen retreated from session highs as equity markets ripped for the second session in a row. The Nikkei followed up a strong finish to the week in the U.S. with a gain of more than 1% while U.S. indices posted their second straight gain of more than 1%. A dovish rhetoric relative to current economic conditions from St. Louis Fed President Bullard coupled with an abysmal New Home Sales read kept the U.S. dollar from rallying. As stated above, tomorrow will be very fundamental in nature and we look to a deep lineup of data coupled with Powell’s testimony to set the tone.
Technicals: Minor resistance at .9411-.94135 stepped in to do the heavy lifting in a quiet session. Price action remains very constructive and we are unequivocally long-term bearish the dollar.
Session close: Settled near .7850
Fundamentals: A weaker Dollar overnight supported the Aussie as well as commodity prices, but we’ve had much more of a consolidation through the day session ahead of tomorrow. There is no data out of Australia tonight but there is Trade Balance data out of New Zealand. Tomorrow evening brings Australian Credit data and Chinese Manufacturing. Ultimately, tomorrow’s day session will be a volatile one with Powell’s testimony, Durable Goods, Case Shiller and Consumer Confidence.
Technicals: Price action settled in near the session’s midpoint after failing to retake resistance at .7903-.7912.
Session close: Settled near .78895
Fundamentals: Each currency followed the same blueprint today ahead of tomorrow’s big day. There was no data out of Canada and price action was subdued on low volume. Strong price action in Crude Oil has worked to keep a very poor tape from trading lower.
Technicals: We remain Neutral in the Canadian only because we still believe the long-term fundamentals will show up in the not too distant future.