We have seen the U.S. dollar moving to the upside in the last 12 hours, following the hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes that send the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rising to 3%. We see 10-year U.S. T-Note prices still in an ending diagonal. So, despite hawkish FED, there is a technical picture that can cause the opposite reaction, which would not be a surprise as this normally occurs when least expected.
If 10-year U.S. T-Notes are ready to bottom then stocks can suffer, based on correlation we see there since Feb. 6. We see E-mini S&P 500 falling below the base channel that can lead to more weakness within wave 3/C.
10-year U.S. T-Notes vs. E-mini S&P 500, 1-hour
If risk-off mode will really start showing up, then we expect more JPY strength which is already strong against some currencies. On this chart we see that the British Pound/Japanese yen (GBP/JPY) currency pair clear three waves up in wave iv) that should be fully retraced.