The forthcoming week may bring these headlines with it: “S&P500 Jumps Over 2%” and “Bitcoin Bounces: Who Bought the Low?” If I had an imaginary crystal ball, complete with an ethereal, mystical mist swirling around it as I predicted the future with exactness, I might know for certain what markets might do in the near future. Instead, the reality is I handmake/sell jewelry with crystals in it, as a hobby with no crystal ball, and I try to anticipate market moves based on technical analysis/probabilities/signals.
The S&P 500 just failed the 20-period moving average on a daily chart, a monthly pivot, and a monthly camarilla pivot with a wide spread between fast and slow fisher lines, setting up a bounce and overhead retest. Also, there was a transient “dip buy” signal on an intraday chart that was merely a test with no “market internals” support-yet. Similarly, Bitcoin is in a technical position with bullish divergences and a hammer-engulf 4-hour chart candle rejecting a monthly camarilla pivot, or reflecting a good place for short sellers to exit with a buy back order on volume spikes. No guarantees of any reversals are made herein, though.
For last week, my most accurate prediction was in soybeans, where prices reversed precisely in the zones and gave candlestick signals on the 4-hour, hourly, and 30-minute charts to short toward accurately projected lows. My most inaccurate prediction was the S&P range that was off by over ten points on both sides, although I did get the direction correct.
I had no trade ideas for this week in advance, but for this coming week, as trade ideas, the Aussie dollar and soybeans meet some of my criteria for an iron condor spread, and the yen could bounce and then rock sideways such that a short put spread could scalp some theta decay and price cooperation. soybeans, the British pound, crude oil and the Yen have inside breakout math with lower weekly pivots, except the Pound’s are higher, into today’s close. With the Pound’s weekly spinning top and short signals in place, I might suspect it rejects pivots and tests lower levels at some point, but don’t fight its bulldozer narrow range break that’s coming out of a constricted range if wrong on direction--join it!
Technical curiosities on chart this week include the Yen on monthly 20-SMA and camarilla pivot support, the Pound teasing traders with a weekly chart spinning top in the context of short trade setups on daily charts, soybeans priced within a crazy cluster of weekly/monthly 20SMA support alongside the daily 50-SMA yet under the weekly bear engulf candle, and Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart hammer on volume with momentum study support.
For my market character forecast, the Pound, Crude oil, Gold, and the Eurodollar are set for trending behavior, based on pivot and range math. All others have more sideways mathematics this week, although wide moves are not precluded by my mathematics-based forecast that one could consider similar to a tornado watch that merely means conditions are right or be aware.
This Past Week’s Projected Ranges/Trade Zones Ending Feb. 2 Versus Actuals:
Lows: 2834-15 Actual: 2878-2755
Lows 9083-9047 Actual: 9248-9073
Lows 12333-12227 Actual: 12557-12371
Lows 1337-1329 Actual: 1356-1330
Lows 6424-6350 Actual: 6646-6367
Lows 1403-1388Actual: 14302-14004
Lows 7956-7936 Actual: 8117-7918
Lows 979-972 Actual: 1004-977
Lows 9902-9747 Actual: 11760-7700
THIS COMING WEEK’S PREDICTIONS
Highs 10712- 9889