Euro (March) (Yesterday's close, Thursday, Feb,1)
Fundamentals: On the surface of today’s landscape, there truly was not a catalyst the dollar dump. Yesterday, the Fed paved the way for four rate hikes this year. European Central Bank member Coeure implied that a stronger Euro would slow down the ECB’s plan to tighten while encouraging a currency war. U.S weekly Jobless Claims beat expectations. The headline read on ISM Manufacturing beat expectations and to cap things off the Atlanta Fed now projects first-quarter GDP at a whopping 5.4%. However, of course, there were some small components today that the Dollar bears used to press its weakness; both the ISM Manufacturing Employment component and Nonfarm Productivity widely missed. It was right at the 9:00 am CT ISM read when the Euro broke out above our resistance level. This signals concern around that Employment component ahead of tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll. 184,000 jobs are expected to have been created in January. Earnings growth will be critical, and the only guarantee is more volatility.
Technicals: Since late morning yesterday, the Euro has not been able to sustain price action below the critical 1.2434-1.2436 level. Technically, it has used this as well as a trend line from the January 18th low to build a base for today’s push higher. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Fundamentals: The Yen was one of two losers against the Dollar today. Our bias turned bearish yesterday for the first time that we can remember in this report. The yen has traded very heavily due to a continued rise in Treasury yields. Earlier this week we noted that the Yen has brushed off the rise in yields over the last two weeks, however, if it continued through the yen must now take notice. Still, dollar weakness has kept the currency from truly pulling back. The trade will now be reliant on tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll data.
Technicals: Yesterday we targeted major three-star support at .9089-.91035 on our Bearish Bias. \
Fundamentals: The Aussie was the other currency negative against the dollar today. Price action was extremely weak early in the session trading to a low of 0oo.7986, the lowest in more than a week. The tape reversed once the U.S dollar incurred strong waves of selling on little to no news. Last night, building approvals data slumped drastically in December coming in at -20%. However, some of this was offset by strength in the AIG Manufacturing and Caixin Chinese Manufacturing reads. We await Aussie PPI data tonight 6:30 pm CT.
Technicals: Our bearish bias began to play out well as price action dipped below major three-star support that also aligns with a trend line from the early December low.
Fundamentals: The Canadian put in a positive session today after RBC Manufacturing PMI was a strong read. Crude oil gained a dollar today, which also helped keep a bid under the currency. U.S. dollar weakness helped to buoy both and the trade to round out the week will be very dependent on this with Nonfarm Payroll tomorrow.
Technicals: Another green session keeps the bulls in control here. Price action maintained a close above the major three-star level at.