Markets got hit yesterday (Monday) and I haven’t seen that many experts try to explain it. How many realize last Thursday was 610 trading days from the August 2015 low? I saw that, Friday was another good market day and I said under my breathe, “here we go again.” But something happened between then and now. Monday was the first day I’ve seen in recent memory where my 1-minute YM charts had a hard time going up. It’s about time.
It’s not that we want to see a correction, but most of us realize the higher it goes, the harder it eventually is going to fall. What about this 610-day window? As you know, most of the market bottomed in February 2016. So, why am I making a big deal out of this? It’s an important pivot influencing the market, but it is the Dow bottom. Friday was a big day, which likely came as a result of the Trump rally taking a victory lap in Davos. I’ve heard some Trump supporters say the market should be at 27,000 by the end of this week.
Sorry, it doesn’t work that way. More likely its another one of those “buy the rumor, and sell the news sequences” type of thing. What threw me a little off was that people knew Trump was going to take a victory lap; with the speech on Friday and the time window on Thursday, I thought what happened on Monday would’ve happened on Friday. But traders held over the weekend and sold on a Monday, which is a little strange.
If today (Tuesday) totally negates this decent reversal candle formation, never mind. I don’t think that should happen. My advice to the President is the following: If you continue to tie your fortunes to the stock market, the media and opposing party is going to tie their misery to you when the market inevitably gets hit. It will be interesting to see how the dynamic develops if a real correction hits.
On the other side of the coin, some of you have been following the situation at the House Intelligence Oversight Committee. Hannity has been reporting on it for weeks. Today, Deputy FBI Director McCabe resigned. All I’m going to say about it is we have a scandal brewing that has the potential to harm the nation. For our timing work, we see the time window materialize and the news event manifests like magic. I wonder if one has anything to do with the other.
I know some of you are curious about the oil market. Here’s the calculation. It appears to be a smaller calculation that is causing a consolidation. The high is 66.66, what can I say about that? Those of you in the spiritual realm know what that is. The SPX 2009 bottom came up all sixes as well. First is the near-term chart where the recent range at 3.88 lined up at 39 bars for the first pivot low but that didn’t prevent a retest where the 39-bar low is still the low. Something is likely developing. I’d be a little surprised if it went straight back up from here.
I’ve run extensive tests on the long-term oil chart. It's not lining up properly. Here’s a monthly chart. As you see the top back in 2011 is 114.83. The end of the triangle at 107.73 to the bottom is a move of 81.68. If I could get 81 to line up, then we have something. But we do have it, from the top to where we are now is 81 months. But its not lining up from the 107 pivot that gets us the 81-point drop. To use an analogy in diagnosing this pattern, if I were an auto mechanic I’d tell you the alignment is off. What I would’ve preferred to see is either 81 months off the absolute top or the end of the triangle when it dropped. But we don’t have that, yet we do have something developing.