Corn Fundamental Support: Very calm trade continued in corn on Tuesday as we would expect during this week between holidays. There was some expectation that we might see some fund short covering like we appeared to see Wednesday through the end of the week last week. What is most interesting is that the COT report showed funds as net sellers of 25k giving a new short position of 222k. This is very close to their all-time record of 231k. It is important to look at the details here.
That COT report measured up to Tuesday's close and the short covering last week didn't appear to start until Wednesday morning. This is how the COT ended up showing selling even though the week ended with small short covering. Today's volume of trade was extremely thin even for this time of year which makes it obvious funds were not involved. If funds remain quiet this week direction will be based on Thursday's ethanol report as well as Friday's export report. Short term we will also want to watch for spill over influence from beans/wheat as long as corn has little news of its own. RE
Ethanol should be strong again this week to allow general support.
Bulls will want to look for more end-of-year short covering but should not anticipate it.
Spill over support would likely be best seen from wheat this week rather than beans if that market can continue grinding higher.
Best case for bears this week would be if wheat starts to ease back offering spill-over pressure to corn.
Funds were reported short 222k, near the all-time record of 231k. Bears should not expect any additional fund selling this close to record short.