But Trump wasn’t done. He asked Congress to come up with a more equitable way of dealing with Iran and their nukes. History has not been kind to appeasers. Before I invoke the Neville Chamberlain clause, we need not look any further than North Korea to see our futures in 10-20 years with the Iranians. Just a couple of quick points about Iran the media won’t tell you. There are 2 clauses in that deal that make it a total scam. First of all, the Iranians get a 24-day notice when the inspectors are coming. Second, the Iranians have the right to announce their own inspections. I’m not exactly sure how that works, but they have a right to schedule inspections when they decide. One more thing, the inspectors don’t get to inspect the real action. Oh yeah, those are done in deep underground bunkers nobody has access to. According to Debka.com, your source for real Middle East intelligence, these places never get inspected. Is it any wonder the Iranians are so angry? Don’t ever forget that if you sit down at a poker table and can’t figure out who the mark is in the first-hour odds are it's you.
Why are we talking about this? Perhaps the market knows best. You can make a case the gutting of Obamacare and the Iran deal are the anti-black swans of our time. Everyone is looking for a black swan and we got one with the Vegas attack. The market rallied. Obamacare is the biggest roadblock to consistent 3%+ GDP growth. The Iranians are the biggest threat to peace in the Middle East. These are huge forks in the road events. Nevertheless, if markets want to correct, they’ll find a justification to do it. Markets don’t bottom on good news, they top it. It doesn’t have to end up on the exact day but they don’t bottom on good news. In terms of sentiment, nothing has changed, the VIX is where it is and 80% of Americans still believe the market will be higher in 12 months, the highest reading since 2007.
Still, markets buy rumors and sell news events. We are not out of the woods. We live in a world where we don’t know what tomorrow may bring. The risk is still very high. Markets can and do top when they trap that very last bull into thinking it will never turn.
Elsewhere, we’ve seen the best sequence out of the precious metals since the rally leg ended in early September. There is a good price and time relationship at the low and it wouldn’t surprise me to see in continue higher but I am expecting a shakeout of weaker hands. Gold turned at a 65% retracement at 64 days off the prior low. Why is this important? Most Fibonacci experts are only aware of the traditional 38/50/61/78% retracements that are built into most software programs. Our work has greatly expanded the retracement ratio, uncovering how it is part of a larger quantum soup vibration matching the time element.