US jobs report

October 6, 2017 10:04 AM

The dollar was explosively volatile on Friday, with prices aggressively appreciating towards 94.27, as investors digested September’s distorted U.S. jobs data.

The U.S. economy lost 33,000 jobs in September. Under normal circumstances, this abysmal headline nonfarm payroll (NFP) data would have sparked concerns over the strength of the U.S. jobs market, but commentators are aware that the figure was heavily distorted by the Hurricanes Irma and Harvey’s disruptions. The 0.5% m/m rise in hourly wages played a leading role in the dollar’s sharp appreciation, which boosted optimism over inflation picking up. With the unemployment rate hitting its lowest level since 2001 at 4.2%, the overall report was encouraging and should support expectations of higher U.S. interest rates.

With the FOMC likely to recognize the sharp decline in September's NFP as a one-off event due to the hurricane season, the dollar should remain supported moving forward. Looking beyond today’s distorted U.S. jobs report, economic data from the United States this week has been positive and, with sentiment still bullish towards the U.S economy, further upside on the dollar is expected.

From a technical standpoint, the U.S. Dollar Index is bullish on the daily charts. A breakout above 94.00 should encourage a further incline towards 94.30 and 94.50, respectively.

About the Author

Lukman Otunuga is an FXTM research analyst