Today's trends on cotton, cocoa, coffee and more

July 25, 2017 09:42 AM

General Comments:  Cotton was slightly lower yesterday in consolidation trading.  After the close, USDA showed crop deterioration due mostly to bad weather conditions in the Texas Panhandle and into the Southwest and Far West.  The market is still trying to complete a bottom on the daily charts.  Weather forecasts call for hot and dry weather that is causing some crop stress to continue in parts of the Texas Panhandle and into western growing áreas.  Irrigated áreas are fine, but some dryland áreas are getting stressed.  The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good and crop conditions are reported to be mostly good by producers and observers.  Monsoon rains are reported as mostly good in India and Pakistan and ideas of bigger production in that part of the world.  Northern áreas are getting good rains now, and southern and Eastern áreas are in very good condition.  China is reporting improved production conditions as rains have improved in growing areas

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see some showers off and on into the weekend.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  Texas will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average price is now 66.35 ct/lb.  ICE certified stocks are now 42,307 bales, from 43,716 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 6750, 6720, and 6690 December, with a resistance of 6920, 6970, and 7020 December.

General Comments:  FCOJ closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering as the market kept an eye on developments in the tropics.  There are currently no threats to production of Oranges in Florida.  There are some storms at sea, but so far these are not forecast to hit the state.  The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US despite the poor production.  Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought.  Trees now are showing the fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are called good after rains over the last month.  The state had been in a drought, but the drought is gone now and trees have responded well to the increased moisture.  Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.  The charts imply that the market has entered a consolidation phase for the short term.

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures,  Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and those total deliveries for the month are now 2 contracts.  USDA said FCOJ in Cold Storage is now 544.443 million pounds, from 5765365 million last month and 766,485 million last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 130.00, 127.00, and 125.00 September, with resistance at 136.00, 142.00, and 150.00 September.

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About the Author

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.