Trends on coffee, sugar, cocoa and more

May 23, 2017 10:33 AM


General Comments:  New York closed and London lower.  New york is holding a short term trading range, but trends started to turn down in London again.  Ideas of better world production were seen once again as many look for stronger crops with coming harvests, and demand ideas remain very soft as most roasters are still not buying much in world cash markets.  However, many traders expect little overall increase in world production at this time as the growing conditions in many ├íreas have not been that good, and IBGE is looking for smaller crops in Brazil.  The big shorts in New York are the commercials who apparently are finally closing short positions at least in part as they close positions on Coffee bought at higher prices.  They are noted as buying futures at this time, and producers are said to be selling in deferred months.  Differentials are stable.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.447 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 123.16 ct/lb.  Brazil will get dry weather  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers.  Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.           

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 128.00 July.  Support is at 128.00, 125.00, and 122.00 July, and resistance is at 135.00, 138.00 and 140.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1860 July.   Support is at 1900, 1870, and 1840 July, and resistance is at 2010, 2040, and 2070 July.

General Comments:  New York and London were higher on reports of more rain in Brazil that could hurt cane quality.  Ideas are that world sugar production will be higher as long as Brazil keeps the current percentages of Sugar and Ethanol production.  However, the delivery of cane to Brazil mills has been down so far this year.  It is very early in the season, and ideas are that the arrivals will improve with time.  Ideas are also that India and Thailand will have bigger crops this year after the failed monsoon cut Sugarcane production in both countries last year. The Indian weather Service expects a 96% normal monsoon this year and the government and producers hope for production to recover in a big way in the next production cycle.  Brazil could also have better crops this year as rains have been good in Center South ├íreas.  It remains much drier than normal in the Northeast, but there has been some rain.  Southeast Asia has good growing conditions.  Demand remains a question as Raw Sugar futures are leading White Sugar futures higher so far this week.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get the mostly dry condition.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.    

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1675 and 1750 July.  Support is at 1620, 1580, and 1550 July, and resistance is at 1700, 1710, and 1750 July.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 474.00 August.  Support is at 460.00, 457.00, and 455.00 August, and resistance is at 469.00, 475.00, and 477.00 August.

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About the Author

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.