There will come a day of reckoning; it’s not a matter of 'if' but 'when'
The Fed raised a quarter point and the quick reaction was as expected. There was the usual pinball action but was tighter than normal. Europe liked the news but by Thursday the price action was lower. This picture may not seem so volatile but in real time its superfast. This is the 1 min YM. Look at the bars leading up to the Kairos moment. They are tiny. Then it jumped 71 points in 7 minutes, most of it in 3 bars. Then the price action got unusually tight for a Fed holiday. From there the dust settled and conditions started coming back to normal.
Part of the reason we didn’t get more fireworks is likely Geert Wilders did not win the Dutch election, which made globalists cheer as they might believe some momentum for the French nationalists in their April election has been stalled. I doubt it.
The third wild card is the debt ceiling where Treasury Secretary Mnuchin enacted “extraordinary measures” and “emergency cash conservation” to keep the government going at least the next 50 days and perhaps through the summer when Congress really get confronted with a game of chicken. You understand it’s impossible to deal with repealing Obamacare and tax cuts without raising the ceiling. That’s just the way it is and it’s going to be that way until such time when we really can’t deal with the debt ceiling anymore and the monster eats us.
We are talking about numbers like $20 trillion. But here’s something that should concern all of us. Larry Kotlikoff is an economic expert who really understands the liabilities that have been left off the books by both sides of the aisle through the years. He says the real fiscal position of the government is a debt of approximately $220 trillion.
Put that name in the search engine and you’ll find enough to keep you busy. There wasn’t much said about the debt ceiling this week. It could be the position of the VIX and all the euphoria but people don’t seem to be nearly as concerned as they were in 2011. If they were they might take the immigration issues more seriously. I’ve researched this guy and he’s very concerned about the benefits bestowed on legal immigrants. I’m not going to engage you in a political discussion but if you consider the fiscal position of the country and you are awake you’d likely realize both sides of the aisle spend money like drunken sailors. There will come a day of reckoning; it’s not a matter of 'if' but 'when.'
Long time readers of this column will remember my predictions for 2014 based on the 1914 analogy for WWI. There was a panic in 1907 and a World War 7 years later. This time ISIS exploded on the scene in 2014, setting up the migration crisis in Europe in 2015. It likely changed the face of Europe forever. Why am I telling you this? If I draw a parallel to the 20th century, the debt bubble should explode no later than 2029, the 100th anniversary of the big stock market crash. At the rate we are going, we’d be lucky to make it that long. Nobody really knows when it could explode and now you know why I rarely discuss this topic. It's only 12 years away. That takes care of last week. Now we are confronted with the change of season and the Gann master turning point for the year. If the stock market is going to correct, it will never be set up more perfectly than it is right now.
As you know the VIX hit levels not seen in years, its off lows but the last time they were down here, the market peaked seven months later with the Russell. This time Investor’s Intelligence bulls hit 63, the highest level in 30 years.