Dow: Bubble or blow-off top?
Now that it’s March we have some key events coming into the next two weeks. First of all is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday where Mario Draghi is supposed to keep rates steady. Next week is the Fed and many believe this will be the time Fed Chair Yellen will act to raise rates. The Fed meeting comes days before the Gann master timing window seasonal change point for the year. March 21 is the single most important market day of the entire year. There is also something else that concerns the smart money. March 15 is the day Congress has to deal with the debt ceiling. I’ve told you Reagan budget director David Stockman said the government will run out of money approximately 50 days down the road from this deadline if it is not raised. I believe March 15 is also the date of the Dutch election.
I don’t believe news drives markets. We’ve had this discussion for years. When the time window hits markets magically respond. If we do have a peak already at hand, all of the events I’ve described here could serve to irritate traders and investors over the course of the next few weeks. If not, then we’ll have another chance to top in the middle of the month, right near the seasonal change point.
Regarding Trump, he has learned like all politicians to take full credit for a stock market rally. That is a double-edged sword because he will take the blame in the case of what just came straight up ends up going straight down. All I’m going to say is the rhetoric and accusations reached new levels over the weekend. Keep in mind this is materializing with Investor’s Intelligence at 63% and a VIX in the 10 handle. Imagine the vitriol if the Dow were to drop 10-20%. If we are having problems now, what is going to happen if social mood were to seriously take a downturn from here. That’s the kind of thing, which could keep people awake at night.
By early Monday morning the situation didn’t improve much at all. Europe was down and the DAX has a set of calculations, which could be a ceiling right here. From the February 11 bottom the first leg was 1775 points. Then we had the big leg to the current high which is 2868 points. The ratio is a near perfect 1.615. For now, these calculations are validating. Some of you remember the ridge with all those incredible readings in 2015. My longer-term view and curiosity was to see how the DAX would respond to any retest. Right now, they’ve poked through it. But if it reverses here, a failure to hit a new high would mean it has been in a stealth bear all this time and this move would’ve been just another incredible bear market rally.
So, a lot is at stake here. As we know U.S. markets have extended the secular bull from 2009. But if you were to glance at the SSE, it’s light-years away from its high. In the end run, markets are very complex, probably as complex as we’ve ever seen them.
Here’s the opening tick, the Dow did leave a small island top. But it’s not all bearish as the E-mini has not been able to build on the losses sustained Sunday night. You wouldn’t see it on the Dow chart. As of early Monday morning the initial indication is not for a blast-off, the blow-off has a slight edge but bulls are not yet giving up. But this is the best chance the bear has had in a long time.