Since the election, the story has been to break one cycle point after another
Here’s something I’ve given careful thought to lately. As high as the stock market is, as low as the VIX has become, we can’t call it a real bubble. Why not? Think back to 1999 when cab drivers were giving stock tips and engineering types were quitting very good paying jobs to day-trade for a living. Do you think it would have been possible for socialist candidate like Bernie Sanders to catch such a wave of enthusiasm?
Sanders represents everything the stock market is not about. Mind you, I’m not picking on Sanders, but he is a socialist. Lately, I’ve given careful thought to what his candidacy really meant to financial markets.
Last year I engaged my favorite cashier at the grocery store--a fellow young enough to be my son, yet old enough to represent the new generation. I was shocked to find out he was a Sanders supporter. As a pure capitalist, I didn’t see the appeal. There is no way something like that could’ve happened in 1999 or even in 2007. I know many of you like me were captivated by the stock market in the late 90s and haven’t lost your enthusiasm for it.
That being said, we realize a lot of the money given to the banks in the early Barack Obama years never made it to Main Street. So, the banks and Fed tinkering helped drive the stock market to the stratosphere. One has to realize as we enter the back end of the one year anniversary to the February 2016 bottom the stock market has accomplished all of this without the kind of public participation we’ve seen in the past. If you seriously think about it, in the bigger picture this one thought alone could propel the stock market higher for years to come.
So, if it’s not a bubble, exactly what is it? It’s a problem because so few have driven these markets to such heights. I don’t remember a time since the 80s when the market has been sitting at new all-time highs for such an extended period without real public participation. I believe that’s why Donald Trump is loosening bank regulations. He wants the money to get back into the hands of small business so they can grow the economy. Leverage works both ways. If stocks remain in the hands of a few, they can just as easily see red over some problem and take it right back down those thousands of points.
This week we come to the 261 day windows to the lows of Feb. 8-11 of a year ago which does complete the anniversary sequence. We are due for a reaction going the other way but up to this point we’ve had incredibly powerful days. If you are involved with 1-minute charts the way I am you’d marvel at the number of times we’d get a couple of red bars and it would look like bears could make a stand for say, an hour and within 15-20 minutes the bulls take charge again and wipe the bears out. Every time that happens it makes it easier to buy the dip.
Here’s the chart of the week from the CAC. In addition to the 261 window I’m concerned about the configuration back to the end of Brexit. Not only does it take on the shape of a wedge but we have a big leg which is 614 points (right there with Fibonacci 610) and a range of 977 points which misses another important Fibonacci mark not by much.
There is enough going on in France these days to cause lots of indigestion. The media prefers not to report on the riots going on. But check Twitter and you’ll see the videos of cops getting beaten right in their squad cars making its way to the world. Of course, we have the first round of the election coming up in about eight weeks. Now Le Pen says the government is paralyzed. She said, “The government is silent. A silence that reflects both its cowardice and its impotence.”