Trump uncertainty triggers Dollar selloff

January 12, 2017 11:03 AM

The Greenback descended deeper into the abyss on Thursday after President-elect Donald Trump’s news conference failed to provide the much-needed clarity on future fiscal policies. With the engine behind the Dollar's aggressive appreciation partly attributed to optimism over Trump boosting US growth via fiscal spending, the uncertainty presented yesterday should expose prices to renewed downside risks. While the news conference covered topics about the Russian hacking reports, Trump's separation of his business empire and repeated criticism of the media, the lack of details of the President-Elects administration’s plans for economic stimulus simply left Dollar bullish investors empty handed. It seems likely that Dollar sensitivity intensifies this month as the renewed Trump uncertainty keeps investors on edge.

The Dollar Index received a beating on Wednesday evening with prices turning heavily bearish during trading on Thursday. Uncertainty continues to fuel the bears with sellers exploiting the downside momentum to drag the index towards 101.00. A decisive breakdown and daily close below 101.00 could open a path lower towards 100.00.

Sterling bulls receive false lifeline
The Sterling/Dollar staged an incredible rebound on Thursday with prices spiking to the highs of 1.2310 on the back of Dollar weakness. Regardless of the short-term gains, sentiment remains bearish towards the Pound with the ongoing Brexit woes eventually sabotaging upside gains. Sellers may be encouraged to exploit the technical bounce on the British pound/U.S. dollar (GBP/USD) currency pair to drag prices back down lower towards 1.2000 in the medium to longer term. When keeping in mind how frightening low buying sentiment is for the Pound, traders may utilise the 1.2350 resistance on the GBP/USD to pull prices back towards 1.2200 in the shorter term.

Euro propelled by weak Dollar
The explosive appreciation on the Euro/U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair has done little to quell the Euro parity dream. It must be kept in mind that the pair remains fundamentally bearish with uncertainty in Europe effectively limiting upside gains. Bears remain on the prowl and may take advantage of the technical bounce on the EUR/USD to pull prices lower in the future. While intraday bullish traders may continue to enjoy the pairs upside gains in the shorter term, the firm resistance around 1.070 could be the first barrier to this rally. If the Dollar starts to stabilise amid the prospects of higher US rates then the EUR/USD could itself sliding back towards the gravitational 1.0500 level.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
The combinations of renewed Trump uncertainties and Dollar weakness have elevated Gold this week. This yellow metal has been a star performer with prices flying towards $1205 as risk aversion and market jitters bolster its safe-have allure. Technical traders may pay very close attention to how prices react to $1210 with a breakout above sparking a further up move towards $1230. With uncertainty and anxiety still shrouding the markets following Trump's news conference, Gold should remain buoyed in the short term.

About the Author

Lukman Otunuga is an FXTM research analyst